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OTB..rollout etc.

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 3:51 p.m.

In Response To: The cube decision that lead to this (neilkaz)

OTB I was quite sure that Jason couldn't even win this game 16% cubeless so it just seemed too wimpy for me to not recube and put the pressure on him. I figured that he'd take, but certainly couldn't be sure.

Should he take a 4 cube here, based on skill differential? I dunno, but I have some doubts considering the g11 MET rollout says it is a 1.18 pass.

The score (after 0 games) is: Opp 3, neilkaz 8 (match to 13 points)

Move number 7: neilkaz on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Opp 65, neilkaz 62
Position ID: 73YGAEB3sxMBAA Match ID: UQmgATAAQAAA

• neilkaz doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.7731	(Money: +0.7746)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.1800	+0.1800
3.	No double	+0.9120	-0.0880
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player neilkaz owns 2-cube 0.8807 0.0134 0.0001 - 0.1193 0.0003 0.0000 +0.7731 +0.9120 Standard error 0.0002 0.0001 0.0000 - 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0006 Player Opp owns 4-cube 0.8847 0.0138 0.0003 - 0.1153 0.0001 0.0000 +1.4339 +1.1800 Standard error 0.0003 0.0008 0.0001 - 0.0003 0.0000 0.0000 0.0012 0.0016
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
5618 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857562780 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• LA Super32 semis recube to 8
  Jason Lee -- Monday, 15 June 2009, at 11:47 p.m.
  • LA Super32 semis recube to 8
    Bill Riles -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 12:11 a.m.
    • LA Super32 semis recube to 8
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 2:43 a.m.
      • LA Super32 semis recube to 8
        Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 2:51 a.m.
      • LA Super32 semis recube to 8
        Bill Riles -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 4:20 a.m.
  • LA Super32 semis recube to 8
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 12:59 a.m.
  • The cube decision that lead to this
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 2:47 a.m.
    • OTB..rollout etc.
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 3:51 p.m.
  • LA Super32 semis recube to 8
    Keene -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 3:17 a.m.
  • LA Super32 semis recube to 8
    Coolrey -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 3:41 a.m.
  • OTB thoughts
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 4:02 a.m.
  • Rollout
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 17 June 2009, at 2:36 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 17 June 2009, at 3:47 p.m.