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A fair spot for the undefeated player

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 8:20 p.m.

In Response To: A fair spot for the undefeated player (Rich Munitz)

A couple years ago I ran a series of simulations with different parameters such as: (a) tournament size ranging from 64 to 96 entrants, (b) different distributions of player abilities. After a million iterations, I always got the following results:

(1) The winner of the Second Chance was a better player on average than the winner of the Main.

(2) The strongest player in the tournament was more likely to win the Second Chance than win the Main.

Messages In This Thread

• Keeping Stats from ABT events
  Stick -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 12:10 a.m.
  • Keeping Stats from ABT events
    Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 12:14 a.m.
    • Keeping Stats from ABT events
      Coolrey -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 3:32 a.m.
      • Fibs uses ELO *NM*
        Rod -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 5:58 a.m.
      • Keeping Stats from ABT events
        Michael Petch -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 10:46 a.m.
        • Keeping Stats from ABT events
          Coolrey -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 1:03 p.m.
      • Keeping Stats from ABT events
        Matt Reklaitis -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 6:04 p.m.
        • Keeping Stats from ABT events
          Coolrey -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 8:44 p.m.
  • Format of LA Final?
    Bill Riles -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 12:21 a.m.
    • Format of LA Final?
      Stick -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 12:26 a.m.
      • Format of LA Final?
        Bill Riles -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 1:18 a.m.
        • Format of LA Final?
          Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 1:30 a.m.
          • Format of LA Final?
            neilkaz -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 2:40 a.m.
            • Format of LA Final?
              Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 3:18 a.m.
              • Format of LA Final?
                neilkaz -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 3:31 a.m.
                • Format of LA Final?
                  Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 3:57 a.m.
                  • Format of LA Final?
                    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 4:03 a.m.
                  • Format of LA Final?
                    mfic -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 6:57 a.m.
                  • Format of LA Final?
                    Sam Pottle -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 2:08 p.m.
                • Format of LA Final?
                  mfic -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 6:39 a.m.
                  • A fair spot for the undefeated player
                    Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 2:57 p.m.
                    • A fair spot for the undefeated player
                      Sam Pottle -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 7:14 p.m.
                      • A fair spot for the undefeated player
                        Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 9:45 p.m.
                        • A fair spot for the undefeated player
                          Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 10:35 p.m.
                          • A fair spot for the undefeated player
                            Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 17 June 2009, at 2:38 a.m.
                            • A fair spot for the undefeated player
                              Coolrey -- Thursday, 18 June 2009, at 3:29 p.m.
                            • A fair spot for the undefeated player
                              Sam Pottle -- Thursday, 18 June 2009, at 5:25 p.m.
                              • The real reason to have a win-once final in double elim
                                Rich Munitz -- Friday, 19 June 2009, at 3:52 a.m.
                                • The real reason to have a win-once final in double elim
                                  Matt Reklaitis -- Friday, 19 June 2009, at 5:05 a.m.
                                  • The real reason to have a win-once final in double elim
                                    Sam Pottle -- Friday, 19 June 2009, at 6:10 a.m.
                                    • The real reason to have a win-once final in double elim
                                      Matt Reklaitis -- Friday, 19 June 2009, at 6:48 a.m.
                                • The real reason to have a win-once final in double elim
                                  Sam Pottle -- Friday, 19 June 2009, at 6:08 a.m.
                              • A fair spot for the undefeated player
                                Matt Reklaitis -- Friday, 19 June 2009, at 4:44 a.m.
                    • A fair spot for the undefeated player
                      Matt Reklaitis -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 7:21 p.m.
                    • A fair spot for the undefeated player
                      Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 8:20 p.m.
                      • A fair spot for the undefeated player
                        Matt Reklaitis -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 10:12 p.m.
                        • A fair spot for the undefeated player
                          Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 11:16 p.m.
                      • A fair spot for the undefeated player
                        Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 19 June 2009, at 11:22 a.m.
                        • A fair spot for the undefeated player
                          Tom Keith -- Friday, 19 June 2009, at 12:58 p.m.
              • Format of LA Final?
                mfic -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 6:32 a.m.
        • Format of LA Final?
          mfic -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 6:28 a.m.
    • Format of LA Final?
      Coolrey -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 3:23 a.m.
      • Format of LA Final?
        Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 3:44 a.m.
        • Format of LA Final?
          Coolrey -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 4:01 a.m.
  • Keeping Stats from ABT events
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 1:04 a.m.
    • Keeping Stats from ABT events
      Stick -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 1:10 a.m.
      • Keeping Stats from ABT events
        neilkaz -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 3:44 a.m.
  • Keeping Stats from ABT events
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 2:29 a.m.
  • Keeping Stats from ABT events - should start for ELO only in 2010 once there is some modicum of consensus
    Rod -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 5:51 a.m.
    • Don't those Nike ads say ..just do it ? *NM*
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 6:14 a.m.
      • Yeahh... nah......
        Rod -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 6:16 a.m.
        • Yeahh... nah......
          Coolrey -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 1:01 p.m.
          • How about Masters then? Limited jackpot? 5 pointers?
            Rod -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 6:40 p.m.
            • How about Masters then? Limited jackpot? 5 pointers?
              Keene -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 7:21 p.m.
              • How about Masters then? Limited jackpot? 5 pointers?
                Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 8:33 p.m.
            • How about Masters then? Limited jackpot? 5 pointers?
              Coolrey -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 8:37 p.m.
              • How about Masters then? Limited jackpot? 5 pointers?
                Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 17 June 2009, at 12:11 a.m.
              • How about Masters then? Limited jackpot? 5 pointers?
                neilkaz -- Wednesday, 17 June 2009, at 2:53 a.m.
            • How about Masters then? Limited jackpot? 5 pointers?
              Barry Silliman -- Wednesday, 17 June 2009, at 8:50 a.m.
              • How about Masters then? Limited jackpot? 5 pointers?
                Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 17 June 2009, at 3:49 p.m.
                • How about Masters then? Limited jackpot? 5 pointers?
                  Barry Silliman -- Thursday, 18 June 2009, at 3:16 a.m.
                  • How about Masters then? Limited jackpot? 5 pointers?
                    Jason Lee -- Thursday, 18 June 2009, at 4:38 a.m.
            • How about Masters then? Limited jackpot? 5 pointers?
              mfic -- Wednesday, 17 June 2009, at 10:50 p.m.
    • Posting on forums this is the subject line not the body message
      Stick -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 12:25 p.m.
    • The sooner, the better
      Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 5:06 p.m.
      • The sooner, the better
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 17 June 2009, at 5:20 a.m.
    • Keeping Stats from ABT events - should start for ELO only in 2010 once there is some modicum of consensus
      David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 16 June 2009, at 5:56 p.m.