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BGonline.org Forums
A fair spot for the undefeated player
Posted By: Sam Pottle In Response To: A fair spot for the undefeated player (Rich Munitz)
Date: Thursday, 18 June 2009, at 5:25 p.m.
Getting closer.
Winner of the once-defeated bracket must go 5-1 (6/64) and then either win 2 or 3 straight.
Actually, that player either goes 4-0 then 1-1 then 2-0 (for 7-1), or 3-1 then 5-0 (for 8-1).
7-1 = (1/16)(2/4)(1/4) = 1/128
8-1 = (4/16)(1/32) = 1/128
Combined probability of becoming the once-defeated finalist is exactly 1/64. As how could it not be? Of course, this doesn't tell us anything particularly useful; the probability of becoming e.g. the losing consolation finalist is also 1/64. To argue that one spot is easier or harder to get to than another, I think it's necessary to do a Keith-type analysis, in which the players are different strengths.
I also think the whole discussion is somewhat beside the point. The characteristics we're talking about are not fairness issues, they're just properties of their respective tournament formats. Is it unfair that the consolation winner in a three-flight format has no chance to win the tournament? Is it unfair that someone who goes 8-0 in a Swiss might lose the event to one of the 6-2 players? As long as everyone understands what the format is before play starts, anything reasonable is fine.
As a practical matter, I like the one-match final a lot, and I congratulate Patrick for being the first to make this change. I don't think he'll be the last. Directors are becoming increasingly aware of the problems the is-it-one-match-or-two final can cause for their schedules, especially in two-day weekend events. This change may help preserve the popularity of the format. Of course, it's still a long schedule, what with all those rounds in the consolation flight...
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