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Very nice roll, now what? ROLLOUT

Posted By: Keene
Date: Friday, 19 June 2009, at 1:13 a.m.

In Response To: Very nice roll, now what? (Keene)

So, why is 7/5 so horrible? Its a massive extra builder, but GNU loathes this nastiness.

I suppose its because its just too big a play. The first 3 are nice and easy to play - I thought anyway. Anyone?

The score (after 4 games) is: maryfranks 2, kilted 4 (match to 7 points)

Move number 14: kilted to play 22

maryfranks	144
kilted	143
Position ID: 4s6YASLGthkAQw Match ID: cAnpACAAIAAA

• kilted moves bar/23* 7/5 6/4*(2)

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.337	(Money: +0.272)
	0.571 0.240 0.013 - 0.429 0.118 0.005
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.253
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.747
3.	Double, take	-0.165	-0.418
Proper cube action:		No double, take (35.9%)

 

Alert: very bad move ( -0.194)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	bar/23* 10/4*	+0.552
			0.631 0.343 0.056 - 0.369 0.093 0.005 +0.536 +0.552 0.002 0.003 0.004 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.006 0.012
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857395394 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	bar/23*/21 8/4*	+0.548 ( -0.004)
			0.627 0.322 0.049 - 0.373 0.089 0.004 +0.506 +0.548 0.002 0.003 0.004 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.006 0.012
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857395394 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	bar/23* 8/4* 8/6	+0.527 ( -0.025)
			0.626 0.331 0.051 - 0.374 0.094 0.004 +0.511 +0.527 0.002 0.002 0.004 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.006 0.012
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857395394 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	bar/23*/21 6/4*(2)	+0.523 ( -0.028)
			0.628 0.322 0.059 - 0.372 0.086 0.008 +0.486 +0.523 0.002 0.003 0.004 - 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.006 0.012
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857395394 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	??	R	bar/23* 7/5 6/4*(2)	+0.358 ( -0.194)
			0.586 0.326 0.062 - 0.414 0.110 0.007 +0.370 +0.358 0.002 0.004 0.005 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.007 0.013
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857395394 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Very nice roll, now what?
  Keene -- Thursday, 18 June 2009, at 4:01 a.m.
  • Very nice roll, now what?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 18 June 2009, at 4:30 a.m.
  • Very nice roll, now what?
    pontiac -- Thursday, 18 June 2009, at 8:20 a.m.
  • Very nice roll, now what?
    mikeg -- Thursday, 18 June 2009, at 2:57 p.m.
  • Very nice roll, now what?
    Petter Bengtsson -- Thursday, 18 June 2009, at 3:01 p.m.
  • Very nice roll, now what?
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 18 June 2009, at 4:55 p.m.
    • Very nice roll, now what?
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 18 June 2009, at 5:50 p.m.
      • Very nice roll, now what?
        Gregg Cattanach -- Thursday, 18 June 2009, at 6:12 p.m.
        • Very nice roll, now what?
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 18 June 2009, at 6:20 p.m.
          • Very nice roll, now what?
            Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 18 June 2009, at 7:03 p.m.
  • Very nice roll, now what? ROLLOUT
    Keene -- Friday, 19 June 2009, at 1:13 a.m.
    • Very nice roll, now what? ROLLOUT
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 19 June 2009, at 1:17 a.m.
    • Very nice roll, now what? ROLLOUT
      Rich Munitz -- Friday, 19 June 2009, at 3:03 a.m.
    • Very nice roll, now what? ROLLOUT
      Chuck Bower -- Friday, 19 June 2009, at 3:30 p.m.
      • Very nice roll, now what? ROLLOUT
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 19 June 2009, at 3:39 p.m.