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The Horror!

Posted By: adambulldog
Date: Sunday, 21 June 2009, at 5:08 a.m.

In Response To: The Horror! (Keene)

I am pretty sure you have to take this. In the variations where he doesn't hit and cover you have substantial winning chances. He only hits and covers 4/36 of the time; 9/36 of the time he neither hits nor covers.

Here's my estimate:

1. Hit n' cover: 4 out of 36. You win around 5 or ten percent of these, mostly when you roll 44 or 4s on consecutive turns. Call it 1/4 of a game.

2. Hit but no cover: 12 out of 36. You're in pretty good shape if you roll a 2 and surviving if you roll a 4. You're not getting close out right away so you'll likely have a couple turns to do this. I'm gonna guess you win 3 games here.

3. Cover but no hit: 11 of 36. If you roll a four you're back in the saddle and probably winning. I'm going to guess you win 3 of these.

4. He rolls even numbers and whiffs altogether: 9 numbers. You're pretty much even now. I guess you win 4.5 games here.

I reckon you have 10.75 games out of 36. I think you probably need around 30% at this score since you get gammoned a bunch. I can't figure out 10.75/36 without a calculator, but I'm sure that you are better than your opponent, so I say:

D/T.

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