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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 22 June 2009, at 9:22 p.m.

In Response To: Slew of Similarly Themed Plays (Stick)

This set of positions was taken from one of Kit's articles and before seeing the rollouts I would have played 11/4 with all of them. It's nice to see the subtle differences in positions and know that after the rollouts ... I still play 11/4 with all of them. It's worth noting that except everything except the speed board (#4) the 11/4 plays wins just over 1% more single games. That'll give you something to base similar positions off of if the gv happens to be augmented at the time knowing these reference positions and that ~1% single wins isn't compensated for by +~2% gammon wins.

gnubg	153
user	67
Position ID: sG3kA0DbdiMBAA Match ID: QQkVAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	11/4	+1.9307
			0.9913 0.9520 0.0004 - 0.0087 0.0000 0.0000 +1.9350 +1.9307 0.0009 0.0044 0.0001 - 0.0009 0.0000 0.0000 0.0052 0.0059
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 856737237 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	11/6 9/7	+1.8995 ( -0.0311)
			0.9807 0.9465 0.0006 - 0.0193 0.0000 0.0000 +1.9085 +1.8995 0.0013 0.0045 0.0001 - 0.0013 0.0000 0.0000 0.0060 0.0067
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 856737237 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

gnubg	116
user	67
Position ID: uLtFAkDbdiMBAA Match ID: QQkVAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	11/4	+1.3384
			0.9756 0.3990 0.0007 - 0.0244 0.0000 0.0000 +1.3510 +1.3384 0.0008 0.0030 0.0002 - 0.0008 0.0000 0.0000 0.0031 0.0034
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857132299 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	11/6 9/7	+1.3270 ( -0.0114)
			0.9653 0.4142 0.0006 - 0.0347 0.0000 0.0000 +1.3454 +1.3270 0.0011 0.0030 0.0002 - 0.0011 0.0000 0.0000 0.0036 0.0042
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857132299 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

gnubg	86
user	67
Position ID: trsHAEDbdiMBAA Match ID: QQkVAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	11/4	+0.9811
			0.9811 0.0243 0.0003 - 0.0189 0.0000 0.0000 +0.9868 +0.9811 0.0009 0.0014 0.0001 - 0.0009 0.0000 0.0000 0.0022 0.0025
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			334 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857628825 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	11/6 9/7	+0.9562 ( -0.0249)
			0.9688 0.0302 0.0005 - 0.0312 0.0000 0.0000 +0.9682 +0.9562 0.0014 0.0015 0.0001 - 0.0014 0.0000 0.0000 0.0032 0.0037
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			334 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857628825 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

gnubg	49
user	67
Position ID: v98AAEDbdiMBAA Match ID: QQkVAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	11/6 9/7	+0.9706
			0.9714 0.0343 0.0006 - 0.0286 0.0000 0.0000 +0.9778 +0.9706 0.0002 0.0003 0.0001 - 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0006 0.0007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857592000 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	11/4	+0.9676 ( -0.0029)
			0.9705 0.0330 0.0006 - 0.0295 0.0000 0.0000 +0.9747 +0.9676 0.0002 0.0003 0.0001 - 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0005 0.0006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857592000 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Slew of Similarly Themed Plays
  Stick -- Sunday, 21 June 2009, at 11:39 p.m.
  • Slew of Similarly Themed Plays
    Petter Bengtsson -- Monday, 22 June 2009, at 1:12 a.m.
    • I thought the same (NM) *NM*
      Frankie D -- Monday, 22 June 2009, at 1:52 a.m.
    • 66 plays safe too
      dc-ohio -- Monday, 22 June 2009, at 11:57 a.m.
      • 66 plays safe too
        Petter Bengtsson -- Monday, 22 June 2009, at 1:52 p.m.
  • Slew of Similarly Themed Plays
    David Rockwell -- Monday, 22 June 2009, at 2:32 a.m.
  • Slew of Similarly Themed Plays
    Keene -- Monday, 22 June 2009, at 2:39 a.m.
  • Slew of Similarly Themed Plays
    happyjuggler0 -- Monday, 22 June 2009, at 2:37 p.m.
    • Slew of Similarly Themed Plays
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 22 June 2009, at 4:48 p.m.
      • Slew of Similarly Themed Plays
        happyjuggler0 -- Monday, 22 June 2009, at 6:20 p.m.
        • Slew of Similarly Themed Plays
          Bob Koca -- Monday, 22 June 2009, at 6:37 p.m.
          • Slew of Similarly Themed Plays
            David Rockwell -- Monday, 22 June 2009, at 6:58 p.m.
            • Slew of Similarly Themed Plays
              Bob Koca -- Monday, 22 June 2009, at 8:25 p.m.
  • Rollouts
    Stick -- Monday, 22 June 2009, at 9:22 p.m.