I pondered this play for some time, but I only came up with two candidate plays and neither of them was the best one! At first I thought about making the 4 point, but I didn't much like having blots on the bar and ace... Then I noticed I could hit twice with 6/4*/1*. I waffled between those two with a definite preference for the double hit and I never considered 7/4*/2. If I had, I might have chosen that, but I doubt it... Because it gave up my 4 prime. That was a key feature of this position to me, along with his blots on the his 8 and 9 points and my 9 point.
With two up he couldn't really protect those, and while I was likely to be hit myself... I would have tons of shots from the roof to hit and keep him busy and a third checker sent back might help me advance my anchor failing that.
I was playing Jona Alexander, a former CA State Champion and recent finalist in Vegas. He gets some good results, but he plays impulsively at times. He is outwardly very confident until you put the question to him when sometimes he will meekly concede. He LOVES to be winning, and hates to have people walk up while he is getting crushed. That knowlege would prove crucial later.
I took awhile on this play so someone took the liberty of entering it into Gnu and starting a rollout. My play was winning! It must have been a 0 ply rollout I guess, but it made me feel like a genius for a while... Anyway, look hard for other plays and maybe you won't miss the best one like I did here: I like Neil's post which shows his insight. He notes that he would try to get tactically lucky by making the 2 point, and isn't that what is required? I am in trouble, his play goes for the same thing, but it is a little tighter and therefore more likely to succeed, because making a 3rd point in your board more than doubles Whites fanning numbers!
The score (after 0 games) is: Gnu 8, Ray Fogerlund 7 (match to 11 points)
Move number 4: Ray Fogerlund to play 32
| Gnu | 135 |
|---|---|
| |
| Ray Fogerlund | 142 |
Position ID: 2O4KCCJit4MBMA Match ID: cIlpAYAAOAAA | |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R | 7/4*/2 | -0.094 | |||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857700257 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 2-ply cubeful | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | R | 7/4* 6/4 | -0.125 ( -0.031) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857700257 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 2-ply cubeful | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | R | 6/4*/1* | -0.169 ( -0.075) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857700257 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 2-ply cubeful | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | 0 | 8/5 6/4* | -0.681 ( -0.587) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 0.349 0.132 0.009 - 0.651 0.299 0.034 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | 0 | 13/10 6/4* | -0.839 ( -0.745) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 0.331 0.121 0.007 - 0.669 0.347 0.058 | ||||||||||||||||||||||