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Re: Is the 5 pt. the 5 pt.?

Posted By: Chase
Date: Wednesday, 18 April 2007, at 6:04 p.m.

In Response To: Is the 5 pt. the 5 pt.? (Stick)

Making the 5pt leaves all 2s, plus 53 63 54 33 = 18 shots. However, if White hits on the 10pt, Blue has a number of returns, and if White hits on the 14pt, it costs White his midpoint, stranding his leftbehinds. Factoring in some duplication, I'd count this as about 14 effective shots. Making the 7pt leaves only 11 shots. Between the two plays, making the 5pt seems worth the few extra shots, especially considering it unstacks both the 6 and 8 points.

The move I'm not sure about is 14/10. The 10pt isn't as valuable a point, but it is a point, and it cleans up two blots. With fewer men back, a weaker board, and no anchor, bold v safe criteria argue for the safer play. If Blue were clearly ahead in the race, this would feel better, but it won't be so easy to escape and win a race from here.

I'll make the 10pt, but I won't be surprised if the 5pt is, once again, the 5pt.

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