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Easy one this time 63

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 24 June 2009, at 5:13 a.m.

In Response To: Easy one this time 63 (Keene)

4th roll - 42-54-54-65-52(20/13)-43-31-63

This is an 8th roll position but we know what you meant. For the record:

  • 52P-54S-54S-65R-52R-43R-31P-63

All can be done with the most basic of nactation symbols.

There are only two choices, 13/10 13/7 or 13/4. Two down leaves 19 hitters, all sixes + 54, and 13/4 leaves only threes, just 14. It would seem that 5 more shots would be too many with the strength of our opponent's board esp. since we're up 10 pips in the race after our play.

Let's look deeper, how do our numbers play assuming we're missed after 13/4? There are 12 rolls that leave a direct shot next turn [66 55 21 41 61 64 65]. 65 is clearly the worst and a lot of the rolls that cover leave indirects but I don't believe this is highly important.

Now what happens if we get away with 13/10 13/7. The only roll to leave a direct, 44! This means the immediate/follow up shots basically cancel each other out and unstacking the mid I believe will take precedence.

Stick

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