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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 24 June 2009, at 10:54 p.m.

In Response To: -4 -2 Cube Action? (Stick)

This was a match against GNU I was playing, I don't know if that made my decision tougher or easier. As most reading this know, the -2 -4 gammonless take point using G11 is 20%. The gammon value on a 2 cube for the trailer is 1 meaning his gammons are just as valuable as his single wins so to decide if we can take all we need to do is add our opponent's single wins to his gammons and see if this figure is less than 80%. If so, take, if not, drop.

I looked at the position and thought to myself "would I beaver for money?" Depending on who I was playing I would, playing GNU I certainly wouldn't. Still, that gut reflex tells me that my win % is plenty high. My made 5pt is huge here and my opponent doesn't have enough men in the zone to typically carry out a blitz and his back men aren't split. All minor details and all told I thought GNU was a small game winning chances favorite. I assigned 53-55% as my starting ballpark. I now move on to the gammons I lose and if I decide that number is greater than 27% or more I have no more thinking to do because the bottom of the barrel win % I assigned my opponent is 53% and if he also gets more than 27% gammons he'll be over 80% and I'll have a pass.

Unfortunately my WAG was 25% gammons. Depending on the accuracy of my ballpark figures it's a thin take to a take. I also couldn't stomach passing a position with sooooooo much play in it, when in doubt, take!

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 1, user 3 (match to 5 points)

Move number 3: gnubg on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	154
user	163
Position ID: sGfkAWAxT/ABMA Match ID: MAGgABAAGAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.2732	(Money: +0.1862)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0391	+0.0391
3.	No double	+0.7272	-0.2728
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.5429 0.2633 0.0193 - 0.4571 0.1590 0.0233 +0.2732 +0.7272 Standard error 0.0016 0.0014 0.0020 - 0.0016 0.0039 0.0026 0.0076 0.0092 Player user owns 2-cube 0.5471 0.2621 0.0294 - 0.4529 0.1829 0.0382 +1.0391 +1.0391 Standard error 0.0021 0.0021 0.0034 - 0.0021 0.0060 0.0035 0.0138 0.0138
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Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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Messages In This Thread

• -4 -2 Cube Action?
  Stick -- Tuesday, 23 June 2009, at 9:33 a.m.
  • -4 -2 Cube Action?
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 23 June 2009, at 9:42 a.m.
    • -4 -2 Cube Action?
      Stick -- Tuesday, 23 June 2009, at 9:43 a.m.
  • -4 -2 Cube Action?
    MaX -- Tuesday, 23 June 2009, at 10:53 a.m.
  • -4 -2 Cube Action?
    pontiac -- Tuesday, 23 June 2009, at 11:00 a.m.
  • -4 -2 Cube Action?
    misja -- Tuesday, 23 June 2009, at 11:12 a.m.
  • -4 -2 Cube Action?
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 23 June 2009, at 11:38 a.m.
  • -4 -2 Cube Action?
    pontiac -- Tuesday, 23 June 2009, at 12:49 p.m.
  • -4 -2 Cube Action?
    Coolrey -- Tuesday, 23 June 2009, at 1:01 p.m.
  • -4 -2 Cube Action?
    Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 23 June 2009, at 1:23 p.m.
  • -4 -2 Cube Action?
    Marty Storer -- Tuesday, 23 June 2009, at 4:40 p.m.
  • -4 -2 Cube Action?
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 23 June 2009, at 6:42 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Wednesday, 24 June 2009, at 10:54 p.m.