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BGonline.org Forums
DMP: 62R-62?
Posted By: Paul Weaver In Response To: DMP: 62R-62? (Christian Munk-Christensen)
Date: Friday, 26 June 2009, at 1:02 a.m.
Stick, in giving his response, took into account the fact that anyone who plays 62R at DMP must be a weak player. Stick gives more consideration to the opponent factor than I do, and I know that he has good reason to do so. Stick has learned a lot from rolling out many early game positions on GNU where one side was forced to play at a higher level of skill than the other.
In giving my response, I will naively assume what cannot possibly be true: both sides play perfectly. I feel that the question of the correct play in a God-vs-God game should be addressed first.
My guess is that the seldom seen 62U (24/18 24/22) is the correct play with 62R-62 at DMP, assuming God-vs-God.
Why?
At DMP, where gammons count for neither side, the simple running game strategy becomes more viable. 62R-62 cannot be played safely; I believe that the correct play is the one that risks the least in the race. Black is not happy if White hits twice (with 64 63 41), but White's 31 is duped. With Black facing only a one-point board, getting hit twice with 64 63 41 is not such a big deal.
Another piece of supporting evidence (which admittedly is not rigorous proof, but is better than nothing) is the money rollout (Snowie-4, 10368 games) of 62R-62, in which 62U (24/18 24/22) won more games than any of the other four plays rolled out.
In this 10368 Snowie-4 rollout, 62R-62U was wrong for money by only 0.007. I therefore recommend that Stick include this play in his money rollout of 62R-62.
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