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Rollout

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Sunday, 28 June 2009, at 4:44 p.m.

In Response To: A -3, -9 cube decision (Neil Robins)

Double/Pass wins this. The second rollout shows a pretty huge ELO effect, if your opponent is weaker.

The score (after 3 games) is: Opp 0, You 6 (match to 9 points)

Move number 13: You on roll, cube decision?

Opp	145
You	146
Position ID: wd8GADjMTtQBBg Match ID: cAkgAQAAMAAA

Alert: missed double ( -0.070)! [bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.815	(Money: +0.920)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.000
2.	Double, take	+1.043	+0.043
3.	No double	+0.930	-0.070
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.815 0.292 0.035 - 0.185 0.037 0.001 +0.815 +0.930 Standard error 0.002 0.004 0.003 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.005 0.009 Player Opp owns 2-cube 0.818 0.303 0.090 - 0.182 0.031 0.001 +1.345 +1.043 Standard error 0.002 0.005 0.005 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.009 0.014
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857342481 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

100 ELO difference MET, 2-ply v 0-ply

The score (after 3 games) is: Opp 0, You 6 (match to 9 points)

Move number 13: You on roll, cube decision?

Opp	145
You	146
Position ID: wd8GADjMTtQBBg Match ID: cAkgAQAAMAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.844	(Money: +0.955)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.868
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.132
3.	Double, take	+0.786	-0.082
Proper cube action:		No double, take (38.3%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.823 0.306 0.036 - 0.177 0.033 0.001 +0.844 +0.868 Standard error 0.001 0.003 0.002 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.004 0.010 Player Opp owns 2-cube 0.824 0.324 0.088 - 0.176 0.028 0.001 +1.031 +0.786 Standard error 0.002 0.005 0.005 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.009 0.020
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857342481 and quasi-random dice
Player 0:
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Player 1:
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• A -3, -9 cube decision
  Neil Robins -- Saturday, 27 June 2009, at 2:36 p.m.
  • A -3, -9 cube decision
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Saturday, 27 June 2009, at 5:01 p.m.
  • A -3, -9 cube decision
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Saturday, 27 June 2009, at 5:20 p.m.
  • A -3, -9 cube decision
    Sam Pottle -- Saturday, 27 June 2009, at 6:31 p.m.
  • A -3, -9 cube decision
    garyo -- Saturday, 27 June 2009, at 7:01 p.m.
  • A -3, -9 cube decision
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 28 June 2009, at 3:06 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Neil Robins -- Sunday, 28 June 2009, at 4:44 p.m.
    • MET for skewed skill rollout
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 29 June 2009, at 4:01 p.m.
      • MET for skewed skill rollout
        Neil Robins -- Monday, 29 June 2009, at 4:38 p.m.
      • MET for skewed skill rollout
        Petter Bengtsson -- Monday, 29 June 2009, at 6:52 p.m.