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Advanced Backgammon part 24C ROLLOUT

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Monday, 29 June 2009, at 7:02 p.m.

In Response To: Advanced Backgammon part 24C (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Robertie (& Neil) got these all right.

Position 237:

7/1 is OK and would be the DMP play, it's just that 8/4 7/5 is better. Safer plays have no place here.

Move number 6: Blue to play 24

White	65
Blue	88
Position ID: v18AAAxmu20AAA Match ID: QQkRAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 8/4 7/5

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	8/4 7/5	+0.9035
			0.8399 0.2714 0.0118 - 0.1601 0.0121 0.0000 +0.9509 +0.9035 0.0008 0.0026 0.0007 - 0.0008 0.0005 0.0000 0.0035 0.0040
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 814281323 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	7/1	+0.8686 ( -0.0349)
			0.8480 0.2216 0.0083 - 0.1520 0.0110 0.0000 +0.9149 +0.8686 0.0008 0.0025 0.0006 - 0.0008 0.0004 0.0000 0.0032 0.0036
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 814281323 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	9/5 6/4	+0.8198 ( -0.0837)
			0.8387 0.1915 0.0073 - 0.1613 0.0080 0.0000 +0.8682 +0.8198 0.0008 0.0024 0.0005 - 0.0008 0.0004 0.0000 0.0030 0.0034
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 814281323 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	7/5 6/2	+0.8186 ( -0.0849)
			0.8324 0.2038 0.0075 - 0.1676 0.0088 0.0000 +0.8673 +0.8186 0.0009 0.0023 0.0004 - 0.0009 0.0004 0.0000 0.0031 0.0037
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 814281323 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	8/2	+0.8087 ( -0.0948)
			0.8347 0.1947 0.0060 - 0.1653 0.0106 0.0000 +0.8595 +0.8087 0.0008 0.0023 0.0005 - 0.0008 0.0005 0.0007 0.0030 0.0034
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 814281323 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	6	R	9/5 8/6	+0.7993 ( -0.1042)
			0.8127 0.2286 0.0111 - 0.1873 0.0136 0.0000 +0.8516 +0.7993 0.0009 0.0026 0.0007 - 0.0009 0.0005 0.0000 0.0033 0.0040
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 814281323 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	7	R	9/5 7/5	+0.7968 ( -0.1067)
			0.8088 0.2366 0.0101 - 0.1912 0.0147 0.0000 +0.8495 +0.7968 0.0009 0.0025 0.0006 - 0.0009 0.0005 0.0000 0.0034 0.0040
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 814281323 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	8	R	8/6 8/4	+0.7961 ( -0.1074)
			0.8456 0.1561 0.0037 - 0.1544 0.0055 0.0000 +0.8456 +0.7961 0.0007 0.0022 0.0005 - 0.0007 0.0003 0.0000 0.0028 0.0031
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 814281323 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	9	R	8/4 6/4	+0.7889 ( -0.1146)
			0.8253 0.1943 0.0071 - 0.1747 0.0093 0.0000 +0.8428 +0.7889 0.0009 0.0024 0.0005 - 0.0009 0.0004 0.0002 0.0031 0.0035
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 814281323 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	10	R	9/7 8/4	+0.7878 ( -0.1157)
			0.8101 0.2234 0.0099 - 0.1899 0.0129 0.0000 +0.8405 +0.7878 0.0008 0.0026 0.0006 - 0.0008 0.0004 0.0000 0.0033 0.0039
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 814281323 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Position 238:

Again, clearing the 6 point is kind of weak. Now 8/4 7/2 is likely best even at DMP, and very correct for money.

Move number 5: Blue to play 45

White	92
Blue	68
Position ID: 3xcEAA472zYAAA Match ID: QQkWAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 8/4 7/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	8/4 7/2	+0.9742
			0.9162 0.1663 0.0028 - 0.0838 0.0008 0.0000 +1.0007 +0.9742 0.0008 0.0015 0.0003 - 0.0008 0.0002 0.0000 0.0022 0.0025
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 814388877 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	6/2 6/1	+0.8658 ( -0.1084)
			0.9050 0.0894 0.0005 - 0.0950 0.0002 0.0000 +0.8997 +0.8658 0.0007 0.0013 0.0003 - 0.0007 0.0002 0.0001 0.0018 0.0020
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 814388877 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Position 239A:

This is standard, just clear the 5 point.

Move number 5: Blue to play 15

White	137
Blue	56
Position ID: bLsGADje2w4AAA Match ID: QYkUAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 5/4 5/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	5/4 5/off	+1.0031
			0.8284 0.3840 0.0375 - 0.1716 0.0000 0.0000 +1.0784 +1.0031 0.0015 0.0018 0.0008 - 0.0015 0.0000 0.0000 0.0033 0.0042
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 862146851 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	6/off	+0.8882 ( -0.1149)
			0.7834 0.3788 0.0350 - 0.2166 0.0000 0.0000 +0.9806 +0.8882 0.0014 0.0019 0.0008 - 0.0014 0.0000 0.0000 0.0033 0.0045
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 862146851 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Position 239B:

In the previous problem, Blue left shots on the next roll with all of 0 rolls. The formation of 3 on the 6, a gapped 5, and 3 on the 4 point is particularly safe. Leaving a double shot is also extremely uncommon.

The gap here is very dangerous, since Blue would be left with 3 on the 6 and 2 on the 5. He'd blot with 65, 64, 54, and most others would create further (single + double shot) jeopardy on the next roll as well.

6/2 3/2 is completely stripped, and blue leaves double shots with 65 & 54. But if Blue gets by this roll he usually be in good shape. It's safer than the alternative in the long run, so 6/2 3/2 gets the nod.

Move number 5: Blue to play 41

White	137
Blue	56
Position ID: bLsGADje2w4AAA Match ID: QQkGAAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 6/2 3/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	6/2 3/2	+0.7207
			0.7418 0.3150 0.0272 - 0.2582 0.0000 0.0000 +0.8257 +0.7207 0.0013 0.0020 0.0008 - 0.0013 0.0000 0.0000 0.0031 0.0038
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 862146851 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	4/3 4/off	+0.6287 ( -0.0920)
			0.7015 0.3357 0.0308 - 0.2985 0.0000 0.0000 +0.7694 +0.6287 0.0014 0.0018 0.0008 - 0.0014 0.0000 0.0000 0.0034 0.0051
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 862146851 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Advanced Backgammon part 24C
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 28 June 2009, at 3:34 a.m.
  • Advanced Backgammon part 24C
    Coolrey -- Sunday, 28 June 2009, at 3:59 a.m.
    • Advanced Backgammon part 24C
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Sunday, 28 June 2009, at 7:40 a.m.
  • Robertie's picks
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 28 June 2009, at 6:37 p.m.
    • Robertie's picks
      neilkaz -- Monday, 29 June 2009, at 3:58 p.m.
  • Advanced Backgammon part 24C
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 29 June 2009, at 4:45 p.m.
  • Advanced Backgammon part 24C ROLLOUT
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 29 June 2009, at 7:02 p.m.