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MCG vs. XG Rollout

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Monday, 29 June 2009, at 8:48 p.m.

In Response To: MCG vs. XG (Matt Cohn-Geier)

So, I looked at the position, and figured that with 2 midpoints to clear and the 4 point still open (no 9 point, either), I'd probably still have an efficient cube next turn even if I lost my market, so I rolled.

XG hammered me and thought the position was worth upwards of .9. GNU 3-ply hammered me even more and thought it was a borderline take/drop. RO says: very thin take, just shy of a drop. Apparently the 3rd guy back is bigger than I had thought in this position, as I win 10% gammons from here.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0

Move number 2: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	160
Blue	132
Position ID: cM/gAA5wt5ExAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5508
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9889
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0111
3.	No double	+0.9000	-0.0889
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7421 0.1028 0.0029 - 0.2579 0.0380 0.0010 +0.5508 +0.9000 Standard error 0.0003 0.0004 0.0001 - 0.0003 0.0002 0.0000 0.0008 0.0022 Player White owns 2-cube 0.7571 0.1011 0.0033 - 0.2429 0.0353 0.0011 +1.1643 +0.9889 Standard error 0.0004 0.0005 0.0001 - 0.0004 0.0003 0.0000 0.0022 0.0030
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
15552 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 862056933 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.2
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• MCG vs. XG
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 28 June 2009, at 6:43 a.m.
  • MCG vs. XG
    eXtreme Gammon -- Sunday, 28 June 2009, at 2:42 p.m.
  • MCG vs. XG
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 29 June 2009, at 4:33 a.m.
  • MCG vs. XG
    Michael Petch -- Monday, 29 June 2009, at 4:51 a.m.
  • MCG vs. XG
    Rich Munitz -- Monday, 29 June 2009, at 5:38 a.m.
  • MCG vs. XG
    Keene -- Monday, 29 June 2009, at 6:05 a.m.
  • MCG vs. XG Rollout
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 29 June 2009, at 8:48 p.m.
    • MCG vs. XG Rollout
      Keene -- Monday, 29 June 2009, at 10:21 p.m.