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Rollout shows that the BOTs are pretty good here

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Thursday, 2 July 2009, at 3:41 p.m.

In Response To: A slightly less developed well timed 42 backgame for BOT comparisons. (Neil Robins)

BGB still overestimates that leader's chances, but nothing tragic here.

The score (after 0 games) is: opp 0, neilkaz 0

Move number 3: neilkaz on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: opp 169, neilkaz 84
Position ID: aNsCghmcdzcAAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

• neilkaz doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0787)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.3937
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.4962
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.5038
3.	Double, take	+0.4175	-0.0787
Proper cube action:		No double, take (13.5%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg   Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.5661 0.3056 0.0115 - 0.4339 0.0543 0.0014 +0.3937 +0.4962 Standard error 0.0016 0.0017 0.0005 - 0.0016 0.0013 0.0002 0.0044 0.0118 Player opp owns 2-cube 0.5694 0.3073 0.0112 - 0.4306 0.0546 0.0015 +0.8026 +0.4175 Standard error 0.0017 0.0018 0.0005 - 0.0017 0.0012 0.0002 0.0090 0.0132
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 862329352 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

 

Messages In This Thread

• A slightly less developed well timed 42 backgame for BOT comparisons.
  neilkaz -- Wednesday, 1 July 2009, at 5:22 p.m.
  • A slightly less developed well timed 42 backgame for BOT comparisons.
    Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 1 July 2009, at 7:10 p.m.
    • Rollout shows that the BOTs are pretty good here
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 2 July 2009, at 3:41 p.m.