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xG 3-ply ROLLOUT Hmmmmm - 32 backgame

Posted By: Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba)
Date: Monday, 6 July 2009, at 4:13 p.m.

In Response To: Test your favorite bot's evaluation skills on this 32 backgame (neilkaz)

Pretty big PASS in a 3-ply ROLLOUT.

This is a similar shift in results as with the other backgame rollout: the rollout wins LESS for the backgame than the 3-ply evaluation. Strange behaviour IMO, more testing needed. It's more worrying since it looks like xG is more in agreement with other bots on its evaluations than on its rollouts.

 

XGID=-CbbDDBa---------bbbbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:8 

 

Score is X:0 O:0. 

 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ 

 |             O  O |   | O  O  O          | 

 |             O  O |   | O  O  O          | 

 |                  |   |                  | 

 |                  |   |                  | 

 |                  |   |                  | 

 |                  |BAR|                  | 

 |                  |   |                  | 

 |                  |   |    X  X          | 

 |                  |   |    X  X        X | 

 |                  |   | X  X  X  O  O  X | 

 |                O |   | X  X  X  O  O  X | 

 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ 

Pipcount  X: 51  O: 168 X-O: 0-0 

Cube  : 1 

X roll or double ? 

 

Analyzed in Rollout 

Player Winning Chances:    58,42% (G: 45,28% B:  4,49%) 

Opponent Winning Chances:  41,58% (G:  0,00% B:  0,00%) 

 

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0,666, Double=+1,332 

 

Cubefull Equities: 

      No Double:   +0,789 (-0,211) 

      Double/Take: +1,110 (+0,110) 

      Double/Drop: +1,000 

 

Best Cube action: Double / Drop 

 

Rollout 

  3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. 

  Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 

  Confidence No Double: ± 0,009 (+0,779  Confidence Double:    ± 0,017 (+1,093   

  Double Decision confidence: 100,0% 

  Take Decision confidence: 100,0% 

   

  Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes 43 seconds 

Messages In This Thread

• Test your favorite bot's evaluation skills on this 32 backgame
  neilkaz -- Tuesday, 30 June 2009, at 3:37 a.m.
  • Here's the position
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 30 June 2009, at 3:38 a.m.
    • Here's the position
      Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 30 June 2009, at 2:47 p.m.
    • Here's some evals
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 30 June 2009, at 2:47 p.m.
      • Here's some evals
        Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 30 June 2009, at 3:32 p.m.
        • Here's some evals
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 30 June 2009, at 3:41 p.m.
    • Here's the position
      jdg -- Tuesday, 30 June 2009, at 4:09 p.m.
    • Here's the position
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 30 June 2009, at 4:16 p.m.
      • Here's the position
        Marty Storer -- Wednesday, 1 July 2009, at 3:01 p.m.
        • Here's the position
          Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 1 July 2009, at 3:56 p.m.
    • Here's the position
      Frank Berger -- Tuesday, 30 June 2009, at 7:21 p.m.
      • About the only thing wrong with BGB is VERY pessimistic backgame evaluations.
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 1 July 2009, at 2:47 a.m.
        • About the only thing wrong with BGB is VERY pessimistic backgame evaluations.
          Ian Dunstan -- Wednesday, 1 July 2009, at 5:51 a.m.
          • BOT development and backgame evals
            neilkaz -- Wednesday, 1 July 2009, at 4:44 p.m.
            • BOT development and backgame evals
              Frank Berger -- Wednesday, 1 July 2009, at 9:03 p.m.
            • BOT development and backgame evals
              eXtreme Gammon -- Thursday, 2 July 2009, at 2:06 a.m.
    • a question of 3-aw 3-aw maniac
      aoleg1 -- Wednesday, 1 July 2009, at 1:05 p.m.
      • Zadeh MET=garbage *NM*
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 1 July 2009, at 4:35 p.m.
        • Zadeh MET=garbage
          MaX -- Thursday, 2 July 2009, at 7:28 a.m.
  • xG 3-ply ROLLOUT Hmmmmm - 32 backgame
    Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) -- Monday, 6 July 2009, at 4:13 p.m.
    • xG 3-ply ROLLOUT Hmmmmm - 32 backgame
      eXtreme Gammon -- Friday, 10 July 2009, at 3:00 a.m.
      • xG 3-ply ROLLOUT Hmmmmm - 32 backgame
        Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) -- Monday, 13 July 2009, at 6:04 p.m.