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Work w/the ELO difference

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 6 July 2009, at 10:39 p.m.

In Response To: Work w/the ELO difference (Stick)

Don't know how to convert the following into an ELO delta, but if White is a 45/55 dog in every game and 20% of his wins are gammons, his MWC at -7, Crawford is 5.9%. I don't think he wins this thing 5.9% of the time, so it's a pass even with that skill differential.

If we make White a 40/60 game dog with the same 20% gammon rate, his MWC at -7, Crawford is just 3.9%. The vig from an immediate 55 or a 2-roll crashing sequence would probably give White over 3.9% in the game, giving him a close take.

Messages In This Thread

• Work w/the ELO difference
  Stick -- Monday, 6 July 2009, at 5:51 p.m.
  • Work w/the ELO difference
    neilkaz -- Monday, 6 July 2009, at 8:10 p.m.
  • Work w/the ELO difference
    adambulldog -- Monday, 6 July 2009, at 8:15 p.m.
    • Work w/the ELO difference
      Stick -- Monday, 6 July 2009, at 10:13 p.m.
      • Work w/the ELO difference
        adambulldog -- Tuesday, 7 July 2009, at 3:14 a.m.
        • Work w/the ELO difference
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 7 July 2009, at 3:29 a.m.
  • Work w/the ELO difference
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 6 July 2009, at 10:39 p.m.
    • Work w/the ELO difference
      Matt Reklaitis -- Tuesday, 7 July 2009, at 4:04 p.m.
      • Work w/the ELO difference
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 7 July 2009, at 4:46 p.m.
  • Work w/the ELO difference Adjusted RO
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 13 July 2009, at 6:19 p.m.
    • Work w/the ELO difference Adjusted RO
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 13 July 2009, at 6:22 p.m.
      • Work w/the ELO difference Adjusted RO
        Petter Bengtsson -- Monday, 13 July 2009, at 7:08 p.m.