BGonline.org Forums

Standard 21/19 backgame (4/6)

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 7 July 2009, at 1:54 a.m.

In Response To: Standard 21/19 backgame (4/6) (Stick)

Does Blue have a take? ATS, the takepoint is the normal 25% but the gammon price is around .75 for each player, quite a bit higher than normal. So what kind of gammon chances are we looking at here? I don't think I've ever played a 6/4 backgame before so guesstimating single/gammon wins and losses is very difficult. One good reason for White to double is that Blue would prefer to not have to make a take/pass decision in a gammonish position at this score. Another is that it's unclear to me if Blue should take so I'd double as White.

I think Blue's a fav to get a shot and will then be a fav to hit and will often then be able to claim with the cube. So I think Blue wins well over 25% but does he win enough to make up for his frequent gammon losses? If he fails to hit a shot, how often does he get gammoned? He's got 67 outside pips plus 3 to bearoff from the 3-point which should take around 10 rolls. White's currently got 21 crossovers to bear his men in and off and he'll probably have to waste some more in order to play safe, so I guess Blue's a fav to get off the gammon if he doesn't hit.

I'll give White 27% gammons and Blue around 7%. This raises Blue's takepoint to around 40% less recube vig which probably translates to Blue needing around 1/3 cubeless chances to take. I think he's got this, so D/T looks right to me.

Messages In This Thread

• Standard 21/19 backgame (4/6)
  Stick -- Monday, 6 July 2009, at 5:56 p.m.
  • Standard 21/19 backgame (4/6)
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 7 July 2009, at 1:54 a.m.
    • Standard 21/19 backgame (4/6)
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 7 July 2009, at 2:29 a.m.
  • Standard 21/19 backgame (4/6)
    David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 7 July 2009, at 2:09 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Tuesday, 7 July 2009, at 5:38 p.m.