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Re: OLM Sunday April 22nd

Posted By: Peter G.
Date: Sunday, 22 April 2007, at 8:37 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Sunday April 22nd (Stick)

I'm very undecided between hitting two (indicated by our impure board, Stick's blots, lack of anchor and perhaps the score) and running from behind (indicated by our race lead and by being outboarded).

Thinking of bold/safe criteria which indicate safe play here, a third play comes to mind. What about the ugly duckling 13/8 6/2?

To tackle this, I switch to the perspective of "pay now or pay later":

1) Will Blue be gin when he gets away with running? He needs luck twice. First avoid the hit and second find safety or luck out again. I call that semi-gin.

2) Will Blue's position deteriorate if he doesn't pay now. Yes, the ugliness of 6/2 is quite noticeable.

3) Will White's position improve over the next rolls. Probably yes, he is in no kind of squeeze and will develop one way or another.

conclusion: 2.5 pay now points and safe&ugly is out. I must pay now by running or hitting. As running looks "safer" than blasting away, that's my choice.

My equity estimates: ugly 0.17 worse than running and blasting 0.1 worse than running.

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