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xG 3-ply ROLLOUT Hmmmmm - 32 backgame

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Friday, 10 July 2009, at 3:00 a.m.

In Response To: xG 3-ply ROLLOUT Hmmmmm - 32 backgame (Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba))

Thanks Zorba,

There was a bug (darn I hate these). A new version is available now. The problem was only noticeable RO with VR in positions where 2-ply and 1-ply equity differ. Backgame are such position. Like Neil pointed to me and many times here, bots still have a lot to learn on these positions. That discrepancy between 1-ply and 2-ply is a good indication of that.

Anyway, here is below a 1440 RO result with the fixed version. I ran a RO with VR (200,000 games) and VR result are much closer but not the same. It again proves that Variance Reduction does introduce a bias in some RO.

This is to be expected. If the bot evaluation were perfect, a VR rollout will result in a 0.000 confidence after the 1st dice rotation (36 dice in XG). The fact that RO with VR have deviation show that the evaluation is not perfect.

I think that the value of the confidence interval (or standard error) could be a good way to measure the accuracy of a program. I'd be interested to hear what are your thoughts about that.

As for eXtreme Gammon, we've focus on Bug fixes in these first weeks. Next will come the implementation of some suggestions we got.

We'd like to thank everyone who give a try and especially all the feedback we got on the analyze, feature and bugs. We thrive on delivering the best experience possible for accuracy, speed, and features. Your feedback has been extremely valuable.

XGID=-CbbDDBa---------bbbbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:8

Analyzed in Rollout Player Winning Chances: 57.69% (G: 44.05% B: 3.78%) Opponent Winning Chances: 42.31% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.632, Double=+1.264

Cubefull Equities:

No Double: +0.716 (-0.239)

Double/Take: +0.955

Double/Drop: +1.000 (+0.045)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout 1440 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3 ply Red, cube decisions: 3 ply Confidence No Double: ± 0.021 (+0.694Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 99.6%

Duration: 22 minutes 18 seconds

Messages In This Thread

• Test your favorite bot's evaluation skills on this 32 backgame
  neilkaz -- Tuesday, 30 June 2009, at 3:37 a.m.
  • Here's the position
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 30 June 2009, at 3:38 a.m.
    • Here's the position
      Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 30 June 2009, at 2:47 p.m.
    • Here's some evals
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 30 June 2009, at 2:47 p.m.
      • Here's some evals
        Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 30 June 2009, at 3:32 p.m.
        • Here's some evals
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 30 June 2009, at 3:41 p.m.
    • Here's the position
      jdg -- Tuesday, 30 June 2009, at 4:09 p.m.
    • Here's the position
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 30 June 2009, at 4:16 p.m.
      • Here's the position
        Marty Storer -- Wednesday, 1 July 2009, at 3:01 p.m.
        • Here's the position
          Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 1 July 2009, at 3:56 p.m.
    • Here's the position
      Frank Berger -- Tuesday, 30 June 2009, at 7:21 p.m.
      • About the only thing wrong with BGB is VERY pessimistic backgame evaluations.
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 1 July 2009, at 2:47 a.m.
        • About the only thing wrong with BGB is VERY pessimistic backgame evaluations.
          Ian Dunstan -- Wednesday, 1 July 2009, at 5:51 a.m.
          • BOT development and backgame evals
            neilkaz -- Wednesday, 1 July 2009, at 4:44 p.m.
            • BOT development and backgame evals
              Frank Berger -- Wednesday, 1 July 2009, at 9:03 p.m.
            • BOT development and backgame evals
              eXtreme Gammon -- Thursday, 2 July 2009, at 2:06 a.m.
    • a question of 3-aw 3-aw maniac
      aoleg1 -- Wednesday, 1 July 2009, at 1:05 p.m.
      • Zadeh MET=garbage *NM*
        neilkaz -- Wednesday, 1 July 2009, at 4:35 p.m.
        • Zadeh MET=garbage
          MaX -- Thursday, 2 July 2009, at 7:28 a.m.
  • xG 3-ply ROLLOUT Hmmmmm - 32 backgame
    Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) -- Monday, 6 July 2009, at 4:13 p.m.
    • xG 3-ply ROLLOUT Hmmmmm - 32 backgame
      eXtreme Gammon -- Friday, 10 July 2009, at 3:00 a.m.
      • xG 3-ply ROLLOUT Hmmmmm - 32 backgame
        Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) -- Monday, 13 July 2009, at 6:04 p.m.