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Work w/the ELO difference Adjusted RO

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Monday, 13 July 2009, at 6:19 p.m.

In Response To: Work w/the ELO difference (Stick)

If anyone is interested I adjusted the MET to give John's opponent a mere 3.662% from Crawford, 7-away, and ran a 0-ply vs. 2-ply RO.

This is still a big pass.

Of course, John's opponent took and won, so the one game rollout says NRD/T.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 4, Blue 8 (match to 11 points)

Move number 4: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	79
Blue	88
Position ID: Pp8HAEDbdgMgIA Match ID: UQlgAUAAQAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless MWC		95.447%	(Money: +0.9775)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	96.338%
2.	Double, take	97.853%	1.515%
3.	No double	96.006%	-0.332%
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.9667 0.0440 0.0003 - 0.0333 0.0003 0.0000 95.447% 96.006% Standard error 0.0004 0.0008 0.0000 - 0.0004 0.0001 0.0000 0.012% 0.013% Player White owns 4-cube 0.9785 0.1771 0.0007 - 0.0215 0.0002 0.0000 98.926% 97.853% Standard error 0.0005 0.0070 0.0002 - 0.0005 0.0001 0.0000 0.025% 0.047%
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 863515494 and quasi-random dice
Player 0:
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Player 1:
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: White 4, Blue 8 (match to 11 points)

Move number 4: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	79
Blue	88
Position ID: Pp8HAEDbdgMgIA Match ID: UQlgAUAAQAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.9431	(Money: +0.9775)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0967	+0.0967
3.	No double	+0.9788	-0.0212
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.9667 0.0440 0.0003 - 0.0333 0.0003 0.0000 +0.9431 +0.9788 Standard error 0.0004 0.0008 0.0000 - 0.0004 0.0001 0.0000 0.0008 0.0009 Player White owns 4-cube 0.9785 0.1771 0.0007 - 0.0215 0.0002 0.0000 +1.1653 +1.0967 Standard error 0.0005 0.0070 0.0002 - 0.0005 0.0001 0.0000 0.0016 0.0030
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 863515494 and quasi-random dice
Player 0:
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Player 1:
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Work w/the ELO difference
  Stick -- Monday, 6 July 2009, at 5:51 p.m.
  • Work w/the ELO difference
    neilkaz -- Monday, 6 July 2009, at 8:10 p.m.
  • Work w/the ELO difference
    adambulldog -- Monday, 6 July 2009, at 8:15 p.m.
    • Work w/the ELO difference
      Stick -- Monday, 6 July 2009, at 10:13 p.m.
      • Work w/the ELO difference
        adambulldog -- Tuesday, 7 July 2009, at 3:14 a.m.
        • Work w/the ELO difference
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 7 July 2009, at 3:29 a.m.
  • Work w/the ELO difference
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 6 July 2009, at 10:39 p.m.
    • Work w/the ELO difference
      Matt Reklaitis -- Tuesday, 7 July 2009, at 4:04 p.m.
      • Work w/the ELO difference
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 7 July 2009, at 4:46 p.m.
  • Work w/the ELO difference Adjusted RO
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 13 July 2009, at 6:19 p.m.
    • Work w/the ELO difference Adjusted RO
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 13 July 2009, at 6:22 p.m.
      • Work w/the ELO difference Adjusted RO
        Petter Bengtsson -- Monday, 13 July 2009, at 7:08 p.m.