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eXtreme Gammon cube rollouts

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Tuesday, 14 July 2009, at 2:55 a.m.

In Response To: eXtreme Gammon cube rollouts (eXtreme Gammon)

The above example shows that the No Double equity should be +1.750, and Double/take +2.588. So the default setting get it wrong by 0.173

This is an extreme (no punt indented) case. In most RO the difference will be not visible. Obviously BG rate are much higher when rolling using "double/take" line.

Btw.. This is the first test of posting HTML position. Comments are welcome

Xavier Dufaure de Citres

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 113

3 point match

11

pip: 18 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-a-AAAAaa---------bbbbbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:3:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
Player Winning Chances:	81.08% (G: 55.90% B: 9.89%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	18.92% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+1.717
Double:	+2.963
Cubefull Equities
No Double:	+1.750
Double/Take:	+2.761 (+1.011)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (-0.750)
Best Cube action: Too Good to Double / Drop
Rollout details
720 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 1 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.047 (+1.702...+1.797)
Confidence Double:	± 0.068 (+2.693...+2.828)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 17.7 seconds

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 113

3 point match

11

pip: 18 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-a-AAAAaa---------bbbbbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:3:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
Player Winning Chances:	79.55% (G: 51.92% B: 32.79%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.45% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+2.198
Double:	+2.786
Cubefull Equities
No Double:	+2.313
Double/Take:	+2.588 (+0.275)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (-1.313)
Best Cube action: Too Good to Double / Drop
Rollout details
720 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Rolled for take Moves and cube decisions: 1 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.091 (+2.222...+2.404)
Confidence Double:	± 0.077 (+2.511...+2.664)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 17.7 seconds

Messages In This Thread

• eXtreme Gammon cube rollouts
  Neil Robins -- Sunday, 12 July 2009, at 5:31 p.m.
  • eXtreme Gammon cube rollouts
    Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) -- Monday, 13 July 2009, at 5:22 p.m.
    • eXtreme Gammon cube rollouts
      eXtreme Gammon -- Tuesday, 14 July 2009, at 2:36 a.m.
      • eXtreme Gammon cube rollouts
        eXtreme Gammon -- Tuesday, 14 July 2009, at 2:55 a.m.
        • Question about cubeless equity
          Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 14 July 2009, at 4:48 p.m.
          • Question about cubeless equity
            Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 14 July 2009, at 11:16 p.m.
      • eXtreme Gammon cube rollouts
        Neil Robins -- Tuesday, 14 July 2009, at 8:03 a.m.