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XG rollouts - eXtreme Garbage?

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Tuesday, 14 July 2009, at 11:08 a.m.

In Response To: Another cube decision (Neil Robins)

Nothing remotely consistent with its evaluation of the position or the GNU rollout here. Rolling out for take seems to throw it even further off.

Rollouts with version 1.01.111 using g11 MET.

With roll for take box ticked:

Analyzed in Rollout Player Winning Chances: 65.48% (G: 15.96% B: 0.49%) Opponent Winning Chances: 34.52% (G: 6.66% B: 0.45%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.375, Double=+0.862

Cubefull Equities:

No Double: +0.736 (-0.041)

Double/Take: +0.777

Double/Drop: +1.000 (+0.223)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.

Rolled for take Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply Confidence No Double: ± 0.019 (+0.718Double Decision confidence: 99.5% Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 33 minutes 36 seconds

Without roll for take box ticked:

Analyzed in Rollout Player Winning Chances: 66.62% (G: 16.51% B: 0.47%) Opponent Winning Chances: 33.38% (G: 6.32% B: 0.50%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.409, Double=+0.925

Cubefull Equities:

No Double: +0.765 (-0.120)

Double/Take: +0.885

Double/Drop: +1.000 (+0.115)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply Confidence No Double: ± 0.018 (+0.746Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 32 minutes 54 seconds

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