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Rollout

Posted By: misja
Date: Wednesday, 15 July 2009, at 3:46 p.m.

In Response To: Monte Carlo - my 1st round (2) (misja)

In the game I took and was gammoned, to lose the match.
I wasn't too sure about the take so I was suprised to see it wasn't even a redouble.
But as John already pointed out the gammonprice is very low, also blue can give some effective redoubles to 16.

The score (after 0 games) is: opp 2, me 0 (match to 17 points)

Move number 5: opp to play 63

opp	121
me	121
Position ID: tt2AAWC2bYEBMA Match ID: AgEvAiAAAAAA

• opp moves 24/18 13/10

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.590	(Money: +0.647)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.684
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.316
3.	Double, take	+0.585	-0.099
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (23.8%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player opp owns 4-cube 0.687 0.346 0.011 - 0.313 0.080 0.005 +0.590 +0.684 Standard error 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.005 0.006 Player me owns 8-cube 0.691 0.348 0.020 - 0.309 0.067 0.012 +0.910 +0.585 Standard error 0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.009 0.011
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 3189975924 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.301)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/18 13/10	+1.089
			0.821 0.480 0.010 - 0.179 0.061 0.005
	2	2	24/15	+1.075 ( -0.014)
			0.813 0.466 0.010 - 0.187 0.065 0.003
	3	2	24/18 7/4	+1.024 ( -0.065)
			0.783 0.469 0.012 - 0.217 0.077 0.003
	4	0	13/10 13/7	+0.596 ( -0.493)
			0.641 0.389 0.007 - 0.359 0.110 0.006
	5	0	13/4	+0.560 ( -0.529)
			0.632 0.397 0.008 - 0.368 0.134 0.009

Messages In This Thread

• Monte Carlo - my 1st round (2)
  misja -- Tuesday, 14 July 2009, at 4:36 p.m.
  • Monte Carlo - my 1st round (2)
    Ian Shaw -- Tuesday, 14 July 2009, at 5:26 p.m.
  • Monte Carlo - my 1st round (2)
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 14 July 2009, at 7:07 p.m.
    • Monte Carlo - my 1st round (2)
      Ian Shaw -- Tuesday, 14 July 2009, at 7:55 p.m.
      • Monte Carlo - my 1st round (2)
        John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 14 July 2009, at 8:42 p.m.
        • Monte Carlo - my 1st round (2)
          Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 14 July 2009, at 8:48 p.m.
          • Monte Carlo - my 1st round (2)
            Keene -- Tuesday, 14 July 2009, at 9:17 p.m.
    • Monte Carlo - my 1st round (2)
      Toppace -- Wednesday, 12 August 2009, at 9:13 a.m.
  • Monte Carlo - my 1st round (2)
    Keene -- Tuesday, 14 July 2009, at 8:02 p.m.
  • Rollout
    misja -- Wednesday, 15 July 2009, at 3:46 p.m.
    • Another rollout
      Petter Bengtsson -- Wednesday, 15 July 2009, at 4:11 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Gustavo Goldfarb -- Thursday, 16 July 2009, at 6:33 p.m.