[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Yep vs. Mochi

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Friday, 17 July 2009, at 3:12 a.m.

In Response To: Yep vs. Mochi (adambulldog)

Two choices: 16/10(2) and 16/7* 5/2

16/10(2) is simple to evaluate. 100% wins (cubeful), no gammons.

With the hit there are 3 returns, all losers (8%) and a bit more because of gammon risk. And a bit more when rolling some embarassing boxes after white dances. So figure 10% losses. Then perhaps another 2% leaving a freak shot in the bearoff and getting hit (there's a gap at the moment). So figure 12% losses total. Assume no other losses in the form of outfield shots since if white enters quickly, blue will cash. How many gammon wins from hitting? I'm going to guess that 1/3 of the time blue winds up cashing, and of the other 2/3, blue wins 25% gammons. So figure 17% gammons. That equates to about 9% white wins. White wins more. So we want to cash this.

16/10(2)

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.