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DMP UGLY position ugly 32

Posted By: Marv Porten
Date: Saturday, 18 July 2009, at 11:56 p.m.

In Response To: DMP UGLY position ugly 32 (neilkaz)

My play is the ugly 4/2 4/1. I leave no immediate shots (despite white's inner board blots, at least one of them is covered with any of white's hitting numbers, so white's weak board is something of a mirage). On my next roll I leave a shot only 11 times; why should I leave a shot now when 25/36 I won't leave a shot next time? Eventually I'll probably leave a shot, but maybe 20 to 30% of the time I'll never leave a shot. If I'm hit, immediately or eventually, I assume I'll lose. I'm not giving white an immediate 30% (or 55% by playing 8/6 8/5) chance to hit me and win if I can (a) play safely, (b) not leave a shot 25% of the time thereafter, and (c) give white only about 23% winning chances if I eventually leave a shot (30% of the 75% that I leave a shot).

Messages In This Thread

• DMP UGLY position ugly 32
  neilkaz -- Saturday, 18 July 2009, at 7:24 p.m.
  • DMP UGLY position ugly 32
    Gustavo Goldfarb -- Saturday, 18 July 2009, at 7:35 p.m.
    • DMP UGLY position ugly 32
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 18 July 2009, at 10:58 p.m.
      • DMP UGLY position ugly 32
        Gustavo Goldfarb -- Sunday, 19 July 2009, at 2:51 a.m.
  • DMP UGLY position ugly 32
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Saturday, 18 July 2009, at 7:54 p.m.
  • DMP UGLY position ugly 32
    John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 18 July 2009, at 8:59 p.m.
    • DMP UGLY position ugly 32
      Mark Donaldson -- Saturday, 18 July 2009, at 10:21 p.m.
  • DMP UGLY position ugly 32
    Bill Riles -- Saturday, 18 July 2009, at 9:29 p.m.
  • DMP UGLY position ugly 32
    mfic -- Saturday, 18 July 2009, at 11:52 p.m.
    • DMP UGLY position ugly 32
      mfic -- Sunday, 19 July 2009, at 5:16 a.m.
  • DMP UGLY position ugly 32
    Marv Porten -- Saturday, 18 July 2009, at 11:56 p.m.
  • DMP UGLY position ugly 32
    Rich Munitz -- Sunday, 19 July 2009, at 1:43 a.m.
  • DMP UGLY position ugly 32
    Robert-Jan Veldhuizen (Zorba) -- Sunday, 19 July 2009, at 3:19 a.m.
  • goldilocks and the 3 plays
    garyo -- Sunday, 19 July 2009, at 4:34 a.m.
  • DMP UGLY position ugly 32
    tem_sat -- Sunday, 19 July 2009, at 5:15 a.m.
  • Rollout means that I can afford more 19 euro burgers (although I am not eating them due to this play)
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 19 July 2009, at 10:27 a.m.