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Analysis

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 24 April 2007, at 6:49 p.m.

In Response To: Cleveland - rolled up aces (Stick)

I won't roll this out because I believe it to be correct by a mile. When it came up though I saw double aces, all those blots, a terribly timed 2-1 backgame, and figured I could screw it up. I was with the majority here in thinking the blot on the 23 point. is already a liability, part of White crushing. I don't want to recirculate it, I like it where it is. After deciding I didn't want to hit there, I though hitting the other two checkers would give me time to make the bar or 8 pt [or both] and make White crush miserably. My opponent is favored to come in with one any turn, so within' 3 shakes he should have both in and start the crunch.

The great part about this game is that I hit two, now my opponent has seven checkers back -- and I bareeeeeeeely won the race and she never hit a checker!? She rolled boxes 6 out of 7 turns I believe it was at one point. (DC was watching, he can attest) Then in the bearoff she tossed some small doubles to take off 4, I pulled it out, which is good, because if I'd have lost this game in a RACE I'd have probably opened fire on the room =)

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 6, user 10 (match to 11 points, Crawford game)

Move number 4: user to play 11

gnubg174


1O1X3X '2X2X '2O1X ' '2O

2X3X2O2O3O2O ' '1O1X ' '

user134

Position ID: OhuBADdsN8IwIA Match ID: 8IlkAWAAUAAA

• user moves 17/16* 13/10*

# Ply Move Equity
1 4 17/16* 13/10* +0.7806
0.8908 0.6730 0.1495 - 0.1092 0.0073 0.0004
2 4 17/16*/15 9/7 +0.7666 ( -0.0141)
0.8845 0.6626 0.1540 - 0.1155 0.0159 0.0012
3 4 17/16*(2) 9/7 +0.7554 ( -0.0252)
0.8788 0.6477 0.1412 - 0.1212 0.0159 0.0008

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