Gee..the plays aren't close at all. I will further this rollout and repost somewhere down the line, but for now it's way TCTC and I'm going to turn to rolling out the other plays in the OLM. Prior to seeing the rollout my small preference went to the safe play. It leaves a decent distribution of builders, prepares to race when you should be trying to race (given that you're up in the race, not that you wouldn't rather play for a gammon if possible given the score). You're also outboarded 3-2 and my points are better points.
Hitting two was in my eyes an obvious overplay but surprisingly came out closer in the rollout than I thought it would. The safe play makes me want to barf, but also performed better in the rollout than I thought it would. The gammons won from the single hit make it a real candidate, possibly correct, too early to tell. I thought that risking losing all that ground in the race with the many returns and being outboarded would point to a safer play. The safe play, all be said, does leave a fair # of shots and also brings an important builder(s) down while hitting.
The score (after 3 games) is: Stick 5, Readers 0 (match to 13 points)
Move number 9: Readers to play 45
| Stick | 158 |
|---|---|
| |
| Readers | 137 |
Position ID: zB3wACWGZ8ZhAA Match ID: cAm2AVAAAAAA | |
• Readers moves 17/8
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R | 13/4* | +0.2169 | |||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2177 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1057362058 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| • | 2 | R | 17/8 | +0.2164 ( -0.0005) | ||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2177 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1057362058 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | R | 8/4* 8/3* | +0.2001 ( -0.0167) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1057362058 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | R | 13/8 6/2 | +0.1967 ( -0.0202) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 648 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1057362058 and quasi-random dice | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | ||||||||||||||||||||||