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As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 20 July 2009, at 11:14 a.m.

In Response To: MC postmortem (Hardy Hübener)

Nerves and gammonphobia strike again. Mochy's cube here is much too soon for the score, and Lars' pass is likely the worst of his great career. This one game ruined both players ER's. Play was exceptionally good in the early/mid match but then deteriorated. Lars' cube play when trailing was far off the mark as he missed many fine score based doubling opportunites and then made the unbelievable pass. Nerves, pressure, fatigue all factor in, and for me it is usually the fatigue that gets me.

The score (after 0 games) is: Mochy 21, Lars 14 (match to 25 points)

Move number 4: Mochy on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: Mochy 133, Lars 143
Position ID: LLfBAUIT18EBAw Match ID: MAEgA1ABcAAA

• Mochy doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.4478)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5227	(Money: +0.5219)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.4900
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.5100
3.	Double, take	+0.0422	-0.4478
Proper cube action:		No double, take (46.8%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6263 0.3403 0.0107 - 0.3737 0.0797 0.0021 +0.5227 +0.4900 Standard error 0.0042 0.0065 0.0032 - 0.0042 0.0032 0.0007 0.0160 0.0285 Player Lars owns 2-cube 0.6245 0.3552 0.0230 - 0.3755 0.0761 0.0026 +0.5578 +0.0422 Standard error 0.0048 0.0137 0.0065 - 0.0048 0.0030 0.0007 0.0358 0.0482
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
209 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 860756174 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• MC postmortem
  Sam Pottle -- Sunday, 19 July 2009, at 6:33 p.m.
  • MC postmortem
    Hardy Hübener -- Sunday, 19 July 2009, at 6:43 p.m.
    • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
      neilkaz -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 11:14 a.m.
      • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
        Tomawaky -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 11:53 a.m.
        • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
          neilkaz -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 12:06 p.m.
          • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 2:26 p.m.
            • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
              Seth -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 2:09 a.m.
          • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
            sonrik -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 4:32 p.m.
          • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
            eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 4:56 p.m.
            • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
              rew -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 5:45 p.m.
              • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
                eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 8:50 p.m.
                • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
                  Bill Riles -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 8:59 p.m.
            • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
              Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 7:21 p.m.
              • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
                Bob Koca -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 8:13 p.m.
                • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
                  Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 8:47 p.m.
            • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
              Coolrey -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 8:08 p.m.
              • Error rates
                jdg -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 8:21 p.m.
              • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
                neilkaz -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 8:33 p.m.
                • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
                  adambulldog -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 5:15 a.m.
        • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
          sonrik -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 4:36 p.m.
        • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
          Stick -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 5:22 p.m.
      • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
        Gustavo Goldfarb -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 1:20 p.m.
      • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
        John O'Hagan -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 2:07 p.m.
      • Wow
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 2:17 p.m.
      • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
        Coolrey -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 2:40 p.m.
      • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
        happyjuggler0 -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 3:26 p.m.
      • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
        Marty Storer -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 6:35 p.m.
  • Congratulations to Mochy
    adambulldog -- Sunday, 19 July 2009, at 7:17 p.m.