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BGonline.org Forums
How Big Is It?
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: How Big Is It? (Gustavo Goldfarb)
Date: Monday, 20 July 2009, at 1:41 p.m.
I agree with Neil's comments in the post above. D/T. The match calcs are as follows. Leader's takepoint is the normal 25% + approx 73% of trailer's gammons less 47% of his own. Trailer's 4-cube takepoint is ~16%. Lars is short on men in the zone so the gammon is a long way off. Mochy will have good chances to anchor on the ace and then probably get off the gammon even if Lars covers and hits the 2nd man. Mochy has decent G chances himself since he'll probably get at least one more chance at rolling a deuce to send a 5th man back. I'll guess around 25% g's for Lars and 17% for Mochy which raises the leader's takepoint to around 36%. Recube vig doesn't figure to help Mochy very much since most of the games he turns around become either too good or too good and not good enough. That's not always the case though. Sometimes he will be able to offer a sensible recube so I'll give him 2% for cube ownership which makes his takepoint 34%.
No doubt he wins it this often, so definitely a take. Lars has enough big mkt losing sequences (cover & fan, hit the 2nd checker and fan with both) to justify sending it over. Plus some players will pass.
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