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As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 20 July 2009, at 2:07 p.m.

In Response To: As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play (neilkaz)

Agree with big ND/Easy Take. To see why, look at the take/drop arithmetic assuming Lars foolishly rewhips on his next shake regardless of Mochy's previous roll. Drop makes it 14-22 with around 10% ME, take and lose loses the match with 0% ME, take and win makes it 18-21 with around 30% ME, take and win a gammon makes it 22-21 with 57.5% ME. The takepoint is therefore 1/3 less around 90% of his gammon chances (around 8%) = approx 26%. This auto rewhip is not Lars' correct strategy so the real takepoint is probably in the 23-24% range. The RO shows Lars side winning > 37%, so Mochy is 13-14% away from an efficient double ATS. You don't want to give any loose cubes ATS so it's a big ND.

Messages In This Thread

• MC postmortem
  Sam Pottle -- Sunday, 19 July 2009, at 6:33 p.m.
  • MC postmortem
    Hardy Hübener -- Sunday, 19 July 2009, at 6:43 p.m.
    • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
      neilkaz -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 11:14 a.m.
      • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
        Tomawaky -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 11:53 a.m.
        • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
          neilkaz -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 12:06 p.m.
          • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 2:26 p.m.
            • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
              Seth -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 2:09 a.m.
          • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
            sonrik -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 4:32 p.m.
          • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
            eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 4:56 p.m.
            • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
              rew -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 5:45 p.m.
              • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
                eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 8:50 p.m.
                • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
                  Bill Riles -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 8:59 p.m.
            • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
              Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 7:21 p.m.
              • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
                Bob Koca -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 8:13 p.m.
                • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
                  Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 8:47 p.m.
            • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
              Coolrey -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 8:08 p.m.
              • Error rates
                jdg -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 8:21 p.m.
              • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
                neilkaz -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 8:33 p.m.
                • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
                  adambulldog -- Wednesday, 22 July 2009, at 5:15 a.m.
        • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
          sonrik -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 4:36 p.m.
        • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
          Stick -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 5:22 p.m.
      • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
        Gustavo Goldfarb -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 1:20 p.m.
      • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
        John O'Hagan -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 2:07 p.m.
      • Wow
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 2:17 p.m.
      • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
        Coolrey -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 2:40 p.m.
      • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
        happyjuggler0 -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 3:26 p.m.
      • As I said at the time, it is unbelievable that anyone can pass this position at this level of play
        Marty Storer -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 6:35 p.m.
  • Congratulations to Mochy
    adambulldog -- Sunday, 19 July 2009, at 7:17 p.m.