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Let's Be Consistent -- An Error is an Error

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Monday, 20 July 2009, at 8:45 p.m.

In Response To: Let's Be Consistent -- An Error is an Error (Bill Riles)

I have mixed feelings about this.

First of all, I have made many errors in an effort to win the match. Some of the time these errors have been rewarded, other times they have not.

Let's say I double a position that is TG, and I know it is TG, but I estimate there is a 25% chance that my opponent will take and I only need about a 7% chance to profitably cube it. He deliberates for 2 minutes and then passes. Was my cube an error? No one would argue that it shouldn't be included in my ER...but if the circumstances were the same I would double again.

Similar considerations apply to doubling early because you think you will get a drop and also to ELO adjusted cube actions. What if I play a 5.7 ER because I was consistently doubling way too early throughout the match but my opponent dropped all my cubes? In reality I probably played a 2.5 ER but I also took advantage of my opponent's weakness...so I probably did even better than GNU would do vs. this opponent, so in fact my ER should be negative.

Basically, ER is a less than perfect system and can't really capture what is going on.

How many times have any of us played on for a gammon, achieved it, and got tagged for 8-10 cube errors in a row for not cashing for a point? Should those errors be discounted because we achieved our goal of a gammon and were rewarded with two points rather than one? It might be nice, but I don't think so.

Entirely different IMHO.

Messages In This Thread

• Let's Be Consistent -- An Error is an Error
  Bill Riles -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 7:58 p.m.
  • Let's Be Consistent -- An Error is an Error
    Coolrey -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 8:39 p.m.
    • Let's Be Consistent -- An Error is an Error
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 8:50 p.m.
      • Let's Be Consistent -- An Error is an Error
        Carter Mattig -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 9:30 p.m.
    • Let's Be Consistent -- An Error is an Error
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 8:52 p.m.
      • Let's Be Consistent -- An Error is an Error
        Steve Mellen -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 12:32 a.m.
        • Let's Be Consistent -- An Error is an Error
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 8:49 a.m.
          • Let's Be Consistent -- An Error is an Error
            Marty Storer -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 5:53 p.m.
        • Let's Be Consistent -- An Error is an Error
          phil Simborg -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 12:08 p.m.
          • Let's Be Consistent -- An Error is an Error
            playBunny -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 12:33 p.m.
          • ER scale linear?
            Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 1:27 p.m.
            • ER scale linear?
              Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 7:53 p.m.
    • Let's Be Consistent -- An Error is an Error
      Barry Silliman -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 12:13 a.m.
  • Let's Be Consistent -- An Error is an Error
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 8:45 p.m.
    • Let's Be Consistent -- An Error is an Error
      Carter Mattig -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 9:27 p.m.
  • Let's Be Consistent -- An Error is an Error
    Rich Munitz -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 9:51 p.m.
  • Let's Be Consistent -- An Error is an Error
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 20 July 2009, at 9:53 p.m.
  • Let's Be Consistent -- An Error is an Error
    garyo -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 2:52 p.m.
  • Let's Be Consistent -- An Error is an Error
    Marty Storer -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 5:48 p.m.