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Re: Action Cube Action (not redundant so stfu)

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 25 April 2007, at 8:04 p.m.

In Response To: Action Cube Action (not redundant so stfu) (Stick)

Because of White's slow bear-off position, and the chance of hitting a second blot, and your fine prime, I'll estimate that you win at least 90% of the times that you hit immediately, and you have 24/36 hitting numbers. So, about 22/36 wins.

Your other 12/36 numbers are 66 55 22 11 15 16 26 56. The 5s and the fans are relatively good but let's assume you roll 16 and look at White's next roll.

65 51 leave 3 blots.

64 55 leave 2 blots.

63 62 61 54 53 52 42 33 31 22 11 leave 1 blot,

66 44 43 41 32 21 leave none.

So I'm going to give you another 3/36 wins from hitting the second time around.

And I'm going to give you another 2/36 wins and 3/36 gammon savers by hitting a later shot.

If you cube now, you can surely take a redouble to 8. Estimating 5/12 wins and 4/12 gammons and 3/12 single games makes your take borderline. But it looks better than that to me.

So, if you cube, you win 75% and lose 10% singles and 15% gammons. If you don't cube, you win maybe 5% or so more often. And so in hundred games your choice is roughly between ND -> winning (80-20)*2 = 120 points, and D/T -> winning 140 points. That 140 assumes no redouble to 8. If there's a redouble to 8 your redouble to 4 breaks even cubeless. But as noted my estimated game breakdown after a miss and redouble to 8 seems pessimistic, and ignores your 16-cube vig.

Anyway, redouble/take.

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