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At Mc Donalds in Cannes...

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Thursday, 23 July 2009, at 3:42 p.m.

In Response To: At Mc Donalds in Cannes... (Bob Koca)

Don't remember how to use Seret's formula, but I do remember a Zare article from G-Village dealing with these late bearoff positions. He recommended using the EPC for a pure N-roll position plus .2/pip for every missing number out of 36. Here that's any 2 plus D3 and D1 (D3 and D1 only take off 2 checkers vs. the usual 4) which is 13 rolls for a 2.6 pip penalty. But there are a lot more misses down the road. These mostly come from White rolling some normal non-deuce, non-set this time and then a deuce next (about 6 misses). Back to back aces also figure to miss about 1/2 the time which is about another 1.3 misses which totals 20.3 altogether. The EPC is therefore 22 + 4.06 = 26.06

29 to 25 with 29 on roll is 50% cubeless while 29 to 30 would be around 78%. White is therefore around 44% so Blue's 11-12% from an efficient recube. Are there enough big mkt losers for Blue to send this over? I think so. Set/non-set plus anything else/deuce is approx 14/36. I've changed my mind. R/T now looks right.

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