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BGonline.org Forums
What did Stick do to deserve THIS?
Posted By: Joe Russell In Response To: What did Stick do to deserve THIS? (Sam Pottle)
Date: Tuesday, 28 July 2009, at 1:51 a.m.
For fairness they are the same format, but the equity of the best player in the tournament is increased under the B format because the bye has to be earned and the best player has the best chance of earning it.
Say you had to win 3 matches to earn the bye and assume the following: best player is 62% against an average player and each round gets progressively tougher. The best player would earn the bye ~(.62 *.60 *.58) and the average player ~(.50 * .48 * .46). Forgive my assumptions if they are too far off. Now assume that the bye is worth .44(his chance of losing , no bye) to the best player and .56(his chance of losing, no bye) to the average player.
The chances of the best player earning the bye is .21576 and it is worth .44 so the value of the bye to him is (.21576*.44)= .0949 The value to the average player is .1104(his chance of earning it)*.56(its value)= .0618
Since we know that a first round bye is worth more to an average player than it is to the best player it follows that the best player prefers the bye to be earned.
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