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Wow, and Gosh! Pt 2 - ROLLOUT

Posted By: Keene
Date: Tuesday, 28 July 2009, at 5:09 a.m.

In Response To: Wow, and Gosh! Pt 2 (Keene)

I didnt even consider slotting the 3pt - I just didnt look at it as an option. The obvious duplication of 4s from just coming out - (to quote Ray F), "Make your opponent roll well to win, perform" (or words to that effect - I am sure Ray can confirm or deny).

So, I came right out. It paid off, but was a terrible play nonetheless.

The score (after 2 games) is: petter 0, kilted 5 (match to 7 points)

Move number 11: kilted to play 61

petter	136
kilted	142
Position ID: aM+RAyDYboUBUA Match ID: cAnnAAAAKAAA

• kilted moves bar/18

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.437	(Money: +0.293)
	0.594 0.241 0.014 - 0.406 0.140 0.008
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.092
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.908
3.	Double, take	-1.363	-1.455
Proper cube action:		No double, take (61.6%)

Alert: very bad move ( -0.138)

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.384)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	bar/24 9/3	-0.235
			0.502 0.213 0.029 - 0.498 0.172 0.012 +0.010 -0.235 0.002 0.005 0.003 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.007 0.011
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859966600 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	bar/24 13/7	-0.305 ( -0.070)
			0.482 0.199 0.034 - 0.518 0.174 0.013 -0.048 -0.305 0.002 0.004 0.004 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.007 0.010
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859966600 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	3	R	bar/18	-0.373 ( -0.138)
			0.495 0.183 0.041 - 0.505 0.237 0.016 -0.107 -0.373 0.002 0.004 0.004 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.007 0.010
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859966600 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	0	bar/24 7/1*	-0.418 ( -0.183)
			0.495 0.254 0.016 - 0.505 0.204 0.031
	5	0	bar/24 8/2	-0.422 ( -0.187)
			0.469 0.172 0.006 - 0.531 0.189 0.016

Messages In This Thread

• Wow, and Gosh! Pt 2
  Keene -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 2:02 a.m.
  • Wow, and Gosh! Pt 2
    playBunny -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 3:28 a.m.
  • Wow, and Gosh! Pt 2
    misja -- Tuesday, 21 July 2009, at 1:26 p.m.
  • Wow, and Gosh! Pt 2 - ROLLOUT
    Keene -- Tuesday, 28 July 2009, at 5:09 a.m.
    • Wow, and Gosh! Pt 2 - ROLLOUT
      Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 28 July 2009, at 1:26 p.m.