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Extras in chouettes

Posted By: phil Simborg
Date: Friday, 31 July 2009, at 2:34 p.m.

In Response To: Extras in chouettes (Timothy Chow)

Again, we disagree. If the player takes bad cubes and takes extras, "in the long run" he will lose money. Yes, as you said, when he wins they will be big wins, but statistically they will not be big enough to cover the losses if they are, in fact, bad takes.

I can prove it very easily. If you take a pure racing situation where you win 20 percent of the time and take an extra, you will win 1 point 80 times and win 3 points 20 times if you take the extra. So your net loss will be 20 points as a result of taking the extras...it's that simple. (Of course this assumes no recubes and no gammons or backgammons, but those are all factored into the equation in determining whether something is a take or drop and the math works out the same).

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