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Extras in chouettes

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 1 August 2009, at 12:36 a.m.

In Response To: Extras in chouettes (Rich Munitz)

The scenario you raise is interesting, but I'm not sure it proves your point. If there's a strong player and the captain is aware of this fact, then it seems to me that the captain's drop is at best doubtful. The captain can take "provisionally" as it were, hoping that the expert takes too. The captain has a chance to rethink if and when everyone else drops and offers extras. He'll be in some danger if the expert drops and someone else takes, because then maybe he doesn't have 25% chances, but at least he'll have another player to consult with and might get close to 25%.

As for "wanting to know the answer," that's not what I meant by being vindicated. Being vindicated means winning money. Keeping the same positive expectation while reducing the variance is hardly a silly idea.

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