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BGonline.org Forums
How do you play this set of double 5's?
Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier In Response To: How do you play this set of double 5's? (rory)
Date: Saturday, 1 August 2009, at 10:43 a.m.
This is basically a pay now or pay later problem.
If you pay now, you leave 17 shots. How bad is getting hit? Pretty bad. You will likely have a 45 return shot from the roof and otherwise be facing an uphill battle against an outside prime.
If you get hit later, is it significantly worse? Not really. White may have made his 4 point by then and you won't have any returns and be facing a 4 point board. It is possible that White will improve to a 5 point or a full prime in the time before you leave another shot.
What plays better for you next time? 11 22 33 44 55 66 62 53 65 54 [14 rolls], most other rolls can be played inside to either kill checkers or break the 6 point, and everything else at least transposes with leaving the 17 shots, if not less. True, your position can deteriorate, but it is unlikely that it'll deteriorate much beyond leaving the 17.
Are you home if you get missed? No. You still have the blot on the midpoint to clean up which doesn't work if you throw an 8 or any number less than 7 that isn't a 5.
Answer: pay later, regardless of the score or position of the cube, and it's not close.
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