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BGonline.org Forums
Re: Bearoff
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Bearoff (Stick)
Date: Sunday, 29 April 2007, at 6:57 a.m.
The safest play must be 4/2* 4/1, getting hit a little more than 30.5% of the time. Next safest is 3/off 3/1, getting hit by something approaching 40% in the next two rolls. And next is 4/2* 3/off, getting hit 55.5% of the time now and little more on the next roll.
I would play 3/off 3/1 because we're not much worried about losing the game but we are worried about winning a gammon. Blue has 9 checkers left so taking off one checker is likely to save a roll.
4/2* 3/off would be my second choice because it should win a few more gammons but at the cost of a few games, since sometimes White will hit both checkers and win from there. The swing on the gammons, I think, is not on 3-3, fanning, but in the swing on poor rolls like 5-1 vs 5-2. After 3/off 4/2* ... 5-1 misses, White needs 5 crossovers to save the gammon and does not get a second shot; after 3/off 3/1 ... 5-2, White only needs 4 crossovers and can stay for a second shot.
4/*2 4/1, since it doesn't take off a checker, can't be the best play here. But if Blue had 10 checkers or 8 checkers left instead of 9, then a checker off wouldn't likely save a roll, so then I'd play the safer 4/2* 4/1. And if White had a closed board, then 4/2* 4/1 ought also to be right.
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