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BGonline.org Forums
Cube action. Anyone have a rule of thumb for this type of position?
Posted By: phil Simborg In Response To: Cube action. Anyone have a rule of thumb for this type of position? (happyjuggler0)
Date: Monday, 3 August 2009, at 2:33 a.m.
It is difficult to have a "rule of thumb" for complex doubling positions. Woolsey's Law says that if you're not sure if it's a take or not, and not sure whether to double or not, a good rule of thumb is to give the cube. This looks like one of those positions to me, so I would double.
As for taking, the only rule of thumb I can give you is what I dub as "Simborg's Law," which I understand was really first expressed many years ago in different words by Joe Dwek. Basically it says to put yourself in your opponent's shoes and ask yourself what you hope he would do, and then, do the opposite. In this case, If I was white, and I put myself in Blue's shoes and asked myself what Blue would like, I would guess that since this position is so different and blue doesn't know for sure he should have cubed, blue would probably be happier getting a drop. So, for that reason, I would take!
Another "rule of thumb" you might apply here is the difference in the players. This is not a particularly easy position for blue to play, and it will probably be a lot easier for white to play. So if you are white and you are playing an inferior player, you might have a greater tendency to take, and if you are blue playing an inferior player, you have a greater incentive to drop.
You basic wish, however, of getting a "rule of thumb" is the real problem. I have 24 rules of thumb for cube action, and none of them are "absolute" rules of thumb....every position is so different that you cannot for certain apply any one rule of thumb, and most positions have 2 or 3 or 4 rules of thumb that could be applied. So looking for a rule of thumb as your magic answer to a problem is not necessarily the best approach to analyzing a given position.
The real question here is how to estimate wins, losses, and gammons for each side, and determine whether or not that is above or below the doubling window and take points, and whether or not the doubler has enough market losers to be "required" to give the cube now.
Applying that thinking, I really see a cube here for blue, especially if you apply Robertie's definition of market losers. (If blue rolls a slightly better than average roll, but not a joker, and white rolls a slighly worse than average roll, but not his worst, would the resulting position be double/pass. If so, double.)
Again, I find the take decision here much tougher. The best answer is to put it in to the bots, roll it out, see if it is a take or drop, and then study the position to understand better why it is a take or drop.
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