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rollout

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Tuesday, 4 August 2009, at 1:32 a.m.

In Response To: Bar Point cube action (David Rockwell)

This short rollout indicates this is not quite a proper double, even at this score.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 2, user 2 (match to 5 points)

Move number 3: gnubg on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	137
user	158
Position ID: TNfgABaYZ8MxAA Match ID: MAGgACAAEAAA

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0180)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4330	(Money: +0.4218)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.7901
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.2099
3.	Double, take	+0.7721	-0.0180
Proper cube action:		No double, take (7.9%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6738 0.1382 0.0217 - 0.3262 0.0788 0.0069 +0.4330 +0.7901 Standard error 0.0016 0.0023 0.0027 - 0.0016 0.0029 0.0016 0.0041 0.0113 Player user owns 2-cube 0.6758 0.1429 0.0276 - 0.3242 0.0864 0.0066 +1.1005 +0.7721 Standard error 0.0018 0.0027 0.0031 - 0.0018 0.0039 0.0014 0.0112 0.0136
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 861215494 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Bar Point cube action
  David Rockwell -- Monday, 3 August 2009, at 4:01 a.m.
  • Bar Point cube action
    Rich Munitz -- Monday, 3 August 2009, at 4:38 a.m.
  • Bar Point cube action
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 3 August 2009, at 4:43 a.m.
  • Bar Point cube action
    garyo -- Monday, 3 August 2009, at 6:02 a.m.
  • Bar Point cube action
    Joe Russell -- Monday, 3 August 2009, at 12:03 p.m.
    • Bar Point cube action
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 3 August 2009, at 3:13 p.m.
      • Bar Point cube action
        Joe Russell -- Tuesday, 4 August 2009, at 1:58 a.m.
  • Bar Point cube action
    David -- Monday, 3 August 2009, at 2:04 p.m.
  • Bar Point cube action
    Keene -- Monday, 3 August 2009, at 2:10 p.m.
  • Bar Point cube action
    neilkaz -- Monday, 3 August 2009, at 3:54 p.m.
  • rollout
    David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 4 August 2009, at 1:32 a.m.
    • analysis
      David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 4 August 2009, at 1:50 a.m.
    • rollout
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 4 August 2009, at 2:19 a.m.
      • rollout
        David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 4 August 2009, at 2:07 p.m.