| |
BGonline.org Forums
analysis
Posted By: David Rockwell In Response To: rollout (David Rockwell)
Date: Tuesday, 4 August 2009, at 1:50 a.m.
This is computer aided analysis.
This turned out to be a very interesting position. The most interesting thing about it is that white volunteers a direct shot on 61, 52, 62, 43, 54 and an indirect shot on 53 & 65 due to the weakness in blue's board. Additionally, white must leave a direct shot on 51 and an indirect shot on 21.
Holding games frequently have a lot of sequences where equity doesn't change much along with a few big doubles or clearing numbers which lose one's market. This favorable volatility can make a good cube turn. However, when one is going to volunteer a shot, the opposite situation can occur. A lot of equity is lost the few times that the shot is hit and equity doesn't change as much when it is missed. Here, the shot is generally hit only when the five blot is covered. When the shot is missed or declined, blue can still take or has a close pass. So, volatility on these rolls is higher downward which argues against a cube turn. You lose a lot of equity turning the cube the turn before a shot is hit. After seeing this, I am surprised the double is as close as it is.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.