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BGonline.org Forums
The Devil Went Down to Georgia
Posted By: phil Simborg In Response To: The Devil Went Down to Georgia (Stick)
Date: Thursday, 6 August 2009, at 4:41 a.m.
So, if I read this right, the one time you hedge was the one time you shouldn't have?
I have a good friend who used to flip a coin with me every time we went out to dinner. EVERY TIME he called heads (he said he wanted to be sure we broke even!).
The funny thing is, while I didn't keep records, I am sure he beat the hell out of me over the years...it was uncanny how often heads came up.
After doing this for about 10 years, again, he was way ahead of me. We took off to Vegas for a 3-day weekend with a couple of other friends. We had both decided that we would limit our losses to $5,000.00, and if we hit that limit, that was it...it was nothing but golf and sightseeing for the rest of the weekend.
About halfway through the second day, we had both lost our $5,000.00. We took a nap, got up, and played golf. We went to a show that night. We were both gloomy and depressed. We made a deal. We would flip a coin and one of us would give the other $2,000.00 that the other could gamble with all he wanted to (while the loser would have to keep playing golf.)
We flipped, and for the heck of it, and for a reason he said he never understood, he called tails. And he lost.
For years he kicked himself for not calling heads. He said that even if he lost by calling heads he would not have felt so bad. (By the way, I ran the $2,000 up to about $8,000 and then lost it all before the weekend was over.)
My point....win or lose, if you are consistent you won't feel as bad as if you zig and zag...and that's what hedging is all about...trying not to feel so bad. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose, but if you either hedge or don't hedge every time, you'll always fell better about it.
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