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My OtB take on this
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Falafel Cube Decision from Georgia Part II (Stick)
Date: Friday, 7 August 2009, at 7:11 p.m.
The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 4, user 2 (match to 9 points)
Move number 3: user on roll, cube decision?
gnubg 100
user 129 Position ID: F9tmABBs2wYABw Match ID: cAkgAUAAEAAA
Cube decision Rollout cubeless equity +0.393 (Money: +0.380) Cubeful equities: 1. Double, take +0.754 2. Double, pass +1.000 +0.246 3. No double +0.542 -0.213 Proper cube action: Double, take Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.647 0.167 0.005 - 0.353 0.084 0.002 +0.393 +0.542 Standard error 0.004 0.007 0.001 - 0.004 0.004 0.000 0.012 0.023 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.658 0.182 0.006 - 0.342 0.083 0.002 +0.923 +0.754 Standard error 0.005 0.009 0.001 - 0.005 0.006 0.000 0.029 0.034 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 108 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 861751686 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Perhaps I'm crazy because nobody really seems to agree with me but practically I think this is a terrible cube. With the information I have in front of me I just can't see cubing this. Here are my assumptions for anyone who would like to enlighten me on the error of my ways.
- Falafel's opponent has clearly used waaaay too much time early in this match and needs time to look at moves. I don't think he's a player like Mochy who may also use a lot of time early on but can play quickly and nearly as strong when needed.
- Falafel's opponent being a (ex) chess player will never time out. He is very familiar with clock usage.
- As Neil and perhaps others mentioned, when you start making errors or even blunders according to someone's clock status you'd better be damn sure you know what you're doing. I want to push my opponent to under a minute and complicate the games from the beginning and then play solid bg once I get into complicated positions expecting him to sacrifice large chunks of equity on plays almost all players would need time to examine to find the best move.
- For the most part, I don't want to elevate the cube especially when the cube is a scoop. This will shorten the match and my opponent, being both a decent player and an intelligent individual, will surely snatch it up not only because it's a monster take but he also recognizes the time issue.
- OtB even before the results of this game I hated that Falafel cubed here. To add insult to injury, salt to the wound, Falafel ends up losing 4 points here taking the match to -1 -7 Crawford and eliminating any time issues that may have existed.
Stick
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