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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 30 April 2007, at 6:46 a.m.

In Response To: Cubalicious (Stick)

There are two rollouts listed below, one with Snowie, one with GNU. I'm proud to say I did double as Blue here and to my surprise Snowie PASSED!? I didn't think it was a pass when I was pondering my double but it certainly ended up not being a happy take. I thought this position might get a couple of beaver cries from the audience since Blue has no board and is losing the race but Blue has some crushing long term prospects. White is on the verge of a total crush, having a disconnected army and blots all around. White will almost certainly never be able to remake the 5 & 6 pts making the whole game a pain in the ass.

Stick	132
Readers	144
Position ID: 28YABRng28EMAg Match ID: cIkJAAAAAAAA

• Readers doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5591
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9318
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0682
3.	No double	+0.7301	-0.2017
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7122 0.2195 0.0079 - 0.2878 0.0904 0.0023 +0.5591 +0.7301 Standard error 0.0012 0.0017 0.0003 - 0.0012 0.0012 0.0001 0.0035 0.0081 Player Stick owns 2-cube 0.7142 0.2294 0.0107 - 0.2858 0.0936 0.0036 +1.1428 +0.9318 Standard error 0.0023 0.0045 0.0012 - 0.0023 0.0015 0.0004 0.0183 0.0223
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1058946714 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Cube action equity
Rollout	Money equity:	0.586
	1.2% 23.2% 72.0% 28.0% 9.2% 0.5%
	95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.586 ±0.022. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 648 games (equiv. 13295 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
1.	Double, take	0.969
2.	No double	0.764	(-0.205)
3.	Double, pass	1.000	(+0.031)
Proper cube action:

Messages In This Thread

• Cubalicious
  Stick -- Sunday, 29 April 2007, at 9:39 a.m.
  • diagram correct?
    Peter G. -- Sunday, 29 April 2007, at 12:04 p.m.
  • Re: Cubalicious
    Chase -- Sunday, 29 April 2007, at 4:39 p.m.
  • Re: Cubalicious
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 29 April 2007, at 4:50 p.m.
  • Re: Cubalicious
    neilkaz -- Monday, 30 April 2007, at 12:04 a.m.
  • Re: Cubalicious
    Stanley E. Richards -- Monday, 30 April 2007, at 3:03 a.m.
    • Re: Re: Cubalicious
      Chase -- Monday, 30 April 2007, at 3:43 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Monday, 30 April 2007, at 6:46 a.m.