[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Luck Adjusted Result

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Saturday, 8 August 2009, at 7:55 a.m.

In Response To: Luck Adjusted Result (Jason Lee)

It is an unbiased estimate of the real result, where for match play a win is represented by +0.5 and a loss by -0.5. The expected value of the real result is equal to the expected value of the luck adjusted result. The luck adjusted result usually has lower variance than the real result, which makes it a useful (imho) tool for estimating how much of a favorite you are against anyone. It's similar in that respect to the favorite percentage from the Snowie output or the difference of cumulative errors in mwc from the gnubg output. These usually have even less variance, but they are not unbiased.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.