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13 off, should I have cubed this?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 8 August 2009, at 4:43 p.m.

In Response To: 13 off, should I have cubed this? (neilkaz)

In Backgammon Boot Camp, Walter Trice comments on a similar position, except that it's a money game and White has a closed board with spares on the 6-, 5-, and 4-points. Trice estimates White's winning chances at 20%, which makes the position a double/drop for Blue.

In neilkaz's position here, White has, in effect, started with Trice's position and rolled a 31. This looks like an averagish roll, maybe slightly above average because the blot is behind a 5-prime, but I would be surprised if White's winning chances had improved all that much. Thus my guess is that this is still a double/drop for Blue.

If Blue owned the cube then the decision might be closer, since there is definitely recube vig in this position.

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