| |
BGonline.org Forums
13 off, should I have cubed this?
Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier In Response To: 13 off, should I have cubed this? (Timothy Chow)
Date: Sunday, 9 August 2009, at 4:19 a.m.
In Backgammon Boot Camp, Walter Trice comments on a similar position, except that it's a money game and White has a closed board with spares on the 6-, 5-, and 4-points. Trice estimates White's winning chances at 20%, which makes the position a double/drop for Blue.
Technically, Trice is wrong here, it is a take. Practically, it is possibly a drop since it's unlikely anyone is good enough to extract maximum equity from the position, so he may be right.
In neilkaz's position here, White has, in effect, started with Trice's position and rolled a 31. This looks like an averagish roll, maybe slightly above average because the blot is behind a 5-prime, but I would be surprised if White's winning chances had improved all that much. Thus my guess is that this is still a double/drop for Blue.
31 is a very strong roll for White, very much above average. It keeps the spares high and exposes a blot on the ace point.
Speaking of which, would you play 31: 3/o 1/o or 31: 6/3 1/o? I am not sure which is best.
If Blue owned the cube then the decision might be closer, since there is definitely recube vig in this position.
The score already makes a difference here with a centered cube. You just can't recube something like this.
I think this is a practical D/T but would not have cubed a roll earlier.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.