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Luck Adjusted Result

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Sunday, 9 August 2009, at 8:26 a.m.

In Response To: Luck Adjusted Result (Jason Lee)

Simple answer: Add 50% to the average LAR, and it tells you your probability of winning a match against this opponent.

Unfortunately, it does not work well if the number of matches in the series is small. As a ballpark estimate, the variance is (15%)^2 per match.

The average LAR converges to the average real result (or is it the other way round?) as the number of matches in the series goes to infinity. It also converges to the average skill difference as it would be measured in cumulative mwc by a perfect bot.

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